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Wednesday, August 03, 2022

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 416 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to climb. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is bullish. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. It has been a great summer rally. We are just about at the 50% retracement level of the decline for the S&P 500. That comes in at approximately 4200-4220. That will be the last chance for the bears to make a stand most likely. It is also the area to try the SPY August puts. At the rate we're going we could get there by the end of the week. It's not without risk though as the rising summation index clearly states that we're in a rally. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed along with interest rates. Rates did rise early but then retreated as the day moved on. The XAU fell almost 2 points, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good. I placed another order for the GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. Not exactly sure this is the right move and I'll reconsider it overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below 22. Short term oversold and staying that way here. The VIX implies higher prices in the near term. Evidently the employment report on Friday will not present any obstacles to the rally at least in terms of what the VIX is saying for now. Although we've entered a normally weak seasonal period for stocks they obviously didn't get the memo. The Russell is leading the way up and we'll keep an eye on that. I'll try and remain patient to wait for the 4200 level on the S&P. We'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mostly so as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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