Monday, August 15, 2022
More of the same to begin option expiration week as the Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is moving higher. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. Overbought for the major averages and staying that way. I did try the SPY August puts early but obviously the timing was off. I sold them back for a 40% loss. I am however still a believer in a decline early this week and bought them again at a closer to the money strike price. Those are showing a small loss. The stop loss order is in. Very risky with only 4 days left in the August option cycle. Plus we could just see higher prices into the expiration on Friday. However we don't trust light volume rallies and that's what we're seeing now. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU fell two points, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was light here. Waiting for GDX to get oversold on the daily chart before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit today which doesn't fit with a postive market. Oversold forever here or so it seems. Just below the important 20 level. The VIX is overdue for a spike but we certainly don't know what would be the catalyst. The S&P 500 hit the 4300 level today and is just below its 200 day moving average. The summar rally remains intact. I am trying the SPY puts here but it could just end up being back to back losses. However I do think that some kind of pause is coming sooner rather than later. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally higher but it wasn't what you'd call a rally. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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