Monday, August 08, 2022
We begin the week with a mixed picture as the Dow gained 29 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The S&P remains short term overbought. We're still waiting for the 4200 level before trying the SPY August puts. Inflation data on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. So it still remains a waiting game for now. Gold was up over a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 2/3, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX September calls is still out there but won't get filled at this rate. Might have to cancel it and look for something else. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and remains short and medium term oversold. Looking for the 20 level here for an entry to the SPY puts. Not quite there but the VIX has remained oversold during most of the summer rally. It will not be oversold forever. However trying to figure out when it turns is the problem. For now the market is stronger than it has been all year and the bulls are in control. Sellers have retreated and I'm not sure what brings them back. This time of the year usually favors the bears but they've gone into hibernation for now. Perhaps todays candlestick on the daily Russell 2000 chart marks some kind of near term top. The Russell has led the way up. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the news of the evening.
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