Friday, August 12, 2022
The summer rally continues as the Dow gained 424 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 higher. The summation index is moving up. Stock indices are overbought and staying that way. Down trend lines have been broken to the upside. The bear is dead regardless of what you might hear. I did place several orders for the SPY August puts today as I modified them as we went up. I have one in as I'm writing todays blog but it probably won't get filled either. I can try again Monday morning if I desire. However trading the short side here is dangerous as it appears prices will be run up into option expiration. That said I do think we're in for a rest at some point next week and sooner rather than later. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. The Russell 2000 just broke through its 200 day moving average. We closed the week at the highs. I'll probably try the SPY puts on any strength Monday morning. But make no mistake that the trend is up. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. Still short term overbought for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX went back down today and is again below the 20 level. The VIX has been moving lower in a steady channel since the lows of the market in June. As long as the VIX remains this way the overall trend for stocks is up. The lower the VIX goes below 20 the stronger the up trend becomes. However we have been oversold on this indicator for so long on a daily basis that I'm pretty sure it is on its last legs moving lower. It is another eason that I would like to try the SPY puts on Monday. But we'll go over the charts this weekend and figure out the plan. It could be to just remain on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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