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Monday, August 01, 2022

A pause in the rally to start the week as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. In my view this is not a top yet as I expect the S&P 500 to get to the 4150-4200 level before taking a breather. I could be wrong but with the summation index leading the way along with the Russell 2000, I expect some more gains in the near future. We're still dealing with 2nd quarter earnings and then we'll get the jobs data on Friday. Gold was up around $5 on the futures. The US dollar continued to drop along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume. I'm still considering trading the GDX calls again but not sure of the timing just yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good bounce higher today but it was not reflected in the loss for stocks. Not sure what to make of that except that the market tone has changed and we are in a bullish mode for now. I would like to try the SPY August puts at some point but will have to wait for the VIX to get back below 22 again. The 20 level is the line in the sand here. Too late to try the index calls now in my opinion. So it is simply watch and wait for now. Asia was higher and Europe lower in trading overseas last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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