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Thursday, August 11, 2022

Markets rallied early on the tame inflation data but spent the rest of the day selling off. The Dow rose 27 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had one day reversals to the downside as they closed negative. Yes the July inflation numbers were low as gas prices came down and commodities sank during that timeframe. It's all about where we go from here as inflation is by no means dead. I did place an order for the SPY August puts overnight but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now in hopes of a return to todays highs in the next couple of sessions. Running out of time in the August option cycle. The Russell 2000 has stalled today at its 200 day moving average. I would keep a close eye on what happens there but for now all signs point to higher prices going forward. Then why try the puts? Well, it won't be a straight line up and the market has been short term oversold for weeks. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose despite the weak inflation data. The XAU was off 2 1/3 and GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was light. I canceled my order for the GDX September calls. Might try it again if GDX gets back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is now at the 20 level. Short term oversold for weeks here and another reason to take a shot at the index puts. That would be the theory but the reality doesn't always match. I also would not be surprised if the market simply continues higher into option expiration next Friday. The trading is never easy. We'll see things shake out tomorrow and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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