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Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Some selling today as the Dow fell 171 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. We had a gap down at the open, started to move higher after the Fed minutes and then sold into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite todays drop. It is hesitating at the 200 day moving average. It's tough when the trades that got stopped out yesterday would have turned a profit today but that is just part of the game. Timing is everything and it certainly gets tougher during option expiration week. Will this be the beginning of an extended decline? Hard to say as buyers have seemed to be ready to step up at any hint of selling lately. So we'll see. Perhaps a top needs to build before we really head lower. Or not. The S&P is pretty far from the 50 day moving average though. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell over 4 points, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume was good to the downside. Not yet short term oversold for the gold shares so we will wait and see. The fundamentals are still unfavorable for the precious metals at this point. Mentally I'm still feeling frustrated especially after the market finally moved lower today. But you've got to simply move on because the market doesn't care how you feel. The VIX was only up slightly with todays stock market drop and finished well below the best levels of the day. Still short term oversold on the VIX. I think the VIX could go either way here and that will tell us a lot about where things are at. If the market is indeed about to roll over now the VIX will have to get moving higher. If not we could see new recovery highs for stocks going into Friday expiration. Either way I'm probably staying on the sidelines for now. Asia up and Europe down last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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