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Thursday, August 18, 2022

Hanging around would be the best way to descibe todays lack of price movement as the Dow rose 18 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. We went back and forth today but didn't do much either way. It had a summer doldrums feel to it even though it is option expiration week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is stalling at its 200 day moving average. Not sure what to expect for expiration Friday. Major stock indexes are either at or close to their 200 day moving averages. What happens from here will tell us a lot about the summer rally and if it continues. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves slightly higher on very light volume once again. No real interest in the precious metals at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains oversold and this is sounding like a broken record for those old enough to remember when music was played on a phonograph. The VIX implies that the rally will live on as it is below the 20 level and dropping. With the VIX action and the stock market rally we have declared the bear dead. The only thing that would change that is if the 200 day moving averages proved to be resistance. In that case this would be the mother of all bear market rallies. But that scenario is slim at this point. Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

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