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Friday, August 19, 2022

Selling was the theme of the day as the Dow lost 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. Not sure if this is actually the beginning of something sustained to the downside or just an expiration Friday event. The near term up trend line in the S&P has been violated but there's another up trend line at lower levels. The breadth today was the weakest that we've seen in a while so we'll keep an eye on that. Also if the summation index starts to drop we'll know that a change is at hand. Gold dropped another ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its climb along with most interest rates. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is getting to short term oversold on the indicators. Will we try the calls here again? Gold is in a seasonally positive time period but the fundamentals right now don't add up to higher gold prices. We'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a point but still remains short term oversold. It also remains in the downward channel that began in June. It is oversold on both the short and medium term time frames so maybe it's time for volatility to make a return. It is a normally weak time period for stocks. Perhaps the summer rally has run its course but we'll know more in the coming days. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as we roll into the September option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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