Wednesday, August 31, 2022
The market tried to rally today but failed as the Dow lost 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Oversold, staying that way and that is never a good sign. Overdue for a bounce but the S&P 500 closed below the support at 3975. It looks like the next stop will be 3900. The NASDAQ wasn't the leader today and that's a small plus. Buyers are on a boycott. I've got to believe that we'll see some kind of upside before the week is out. Perhaps the jobs report will encourage some short covering at least. But it appears that the tide has now turned and we'll be looking to purchase some SPY September puts at some point if we get the chance. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar remained steady but interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was lighter than average. I'm not sure how much lower the gold shares can go as they are completely blown out to the downside both short and medium term. Patience here still for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Still short term overbought for the VIX. I do not have a good feel for what the VIX is doing at this time. It is back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can say that the way the markets are acting it feels like lower prices are in our future. Just how low is the question. At this point I don't have an answer. Are we going back to the June lows? We'll see. Beginning of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday. Europe and Asia were both weak in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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