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Monday, August 29, 2022

It was a day of stabalization after Fridays debacle as the Dow fell 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Short term oversold now for most of the major indices. Some are trying to hold on here at their 50 day moving averages. We're keeping an eye on the up trend line at 3975 for the S&P 500. That should be the moment of truth for what's going on here. There is a possibility that the daily chart on the S&P is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. That would prove to be quite a surprise. But it's only a potential for now as we'll see how things play out as time goes on. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold finished flat on the session as did the US dollar. Interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX was off 1/3. Volume was average. I'm looking at the October GDX calls now but in no hurry to do anything. The positive seasonal period now for gold is offset by the poor current fundamentals for the precious metal. GDX is short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish down form the best levels of the session. It is short term overbought which normally would imply that we'll see some gains for stocks near term. However it's quite possible that these aren't normal times after the sell off on Friday. So I'm not getting a good feel for what the VIX is doing here. The Russell 2000 led the way down and then back up recently. It hasn't been dropping as much as the rest of the pack here relatively speaking. So perhaps we are not on the verge of a major decline but that's just a guess on my part. The summation index continues to move down and we'll take our cues from there. Europe and Asia were lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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