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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

A mixed picture today as the Dow gained 239 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. Small stocks took a breather as the NASDAQ had a small loss. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought but did drop back from the best levels of the day. My SPY August puts got stopped out for a 35% loss. Would I like to try them again? Well yes, but after two straight losses I'll have to sit things out for the rest of the week. My short term timing has never been that good and this week reinforces that fact. Do I still expect some kind of drop this week? I do but things could just run up into the expiration before the market takes a break. The Dow was the leader today and that sometimes is a sign that things will be cooling off. Perhaps we'll get some sellers after tomorrows Fed minutes are released. Gold was off $7. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. Still waiting for an oversold reading on GDX to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as losing trades will do that. Stepping back right now would not be a bad idea. At least the money management was handled properly as I adhered to the stop loss orders. But it's really no consolation. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. Still oversold here and there seems to be no end to that. Hence a rally that has gone on as long as this one. The declining trend channel remains intact and the 50 day average is getting close to dropping below the 200 day. The rally could surprise even more to the upside if that occurs. The stock market lately has had a summer trading feel to it with lighter volume and a lack of volatility. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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