Friday, August 26, 2022
Stocks got rocked today as the speech from chairman Powell led to massive selling. The Dow fell just over a thousand points on light volume. There were no buyers on a summer Friday. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The NASDAQ was off almost 500 points and led the way down. The S&P 500 is back to oversold in a hurry. The next area of support is at the 50 day moving average around the 4000 level. Then comes the up trend line that began in June at about 3975. At this pace we'll get there next week. I certainly did not expect such a negative market reaction today. We also didn't get the light volume rally back to the 200 day moving average we were hoping for. It looks like the ship has sailed for the SPY September put idea. Not sure on what we are going to do next. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished higher and interest rates were only up slightly. The XAU fell almost five points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. Not sure if we want to step in and buy the GDX calls here as it looks like the support is about to break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and closed above both the 200 and 50 day moving averages. No way I saw that coming. The short term indicators turned back up and are getting overbought. Yesterday it looked like the VIX was going to fall and stock prices were going to rise. Today the exact opposite occurred. Hence, this is why we often say that the market will go where it wants. So where do we go from here? I'll be going over the charts this weekend as there will be plenty of work to do. With September looming it appears as though today is the precursor to lower prices. It won't be a straight line but the trend has turned back down. The summer rally has run its course. Will we make it down to the lows of June? Who knows? For now we'll just try and figure out a near term strategy. Asia was up and Europe down to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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