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Friday, July 29, 2022

The bulls are now firmly in charge as the Dow gained 315 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Down trend lines have been broken and we can declare the bear dead. Overbought and staying that way for the major averages. There are now bullish candlesticks on the monthly charts. The NASDAQ once again led the way higher. Inflation data was higher than expected but the market rallied anyway. That is why we say the market will go where it wants. The data is sometimes irrelevant when in bull or bear mode. The next stop for the S&P 500 is the 4200 level which should prove to be stronger resistance. That would be the spot to try the SPY August puts if you're so inclined. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued to drop and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was good as it has been this week for the gold shares. My thinking is to try the GDX calls again on a pull back but that idea hasn't worked for months. It is a seasonally positive period for gold now though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX broke through the last area of downside resistance as it closed below the 22 level. Remaining short term oversold but that's what happens during stock market rallies and we're in one now. If the VIX reaches 20 and the S&P is at 4200 that would be the time to purchase the SPY August puts. Not for an extended amount of time but that's the logical place for a pause in the rally. Perhaps we'll get the opportunity next week. However we cannot deny the rally taking place here and will listen to what the market has to say. Plenty to look at and study over the weekend as there are still three weeks left in the August option cycle. But it appears that the tide has turned and declines can now be purchased. My thought of lower prices in the autumn was wrong at this point. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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