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Friday, July 22, 2022

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. However the S&P 500 was running into the next line of resistance and it took a step back. That doesn't mean the rally is over but we'll have to keep a close eye on what follows from here. The S&P remains short term overbought. I would expect the beginning of next week to be a waiting game on the Fed announcement Wednesday. We are hoping to try the SPY August puts but we'll try and let the market tell us where it is going. Despite todays drop the trend remains up. The gold futures finished with a gain of $8 but were higher than that during the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took another steep drop. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3 after being higher early on. It was a one day downside reversal for the gold shares. Volume was good going lower. My GDX September calls are still losers and will be stopped out on Monday with a repeat of todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. We almost made it to the 22 level today. That is the area on the VIX in which to try the SPY puts and we could get there Monday if stocks stage a rally. Risky it would be to try it as there is plenty of time left in the August option cycle due to the extra week involved. If the VIX breaks below 22 and closes below it next week we might declare the bear market over. There is a line of resistance for the VIX on a weekly basis that has held since November of last year. So we are at an important juncture for volatility that should be resolved in the coming week. It will tell us a lot. Plenty to think about this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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