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Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Now it looks like a summer rally as the Dow soared 754 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We have made it past the first line of resistance for the S&P. The next test arrives at the 4000 level. Small stocks have closed above their 50 day moving averages. The bulls are trying to take back control of the game. We are getting short term overbought but not completely there yet. Looking from a bearish perspective, todays rally sprung up out of nowhere. That is classic bear market activity. We'll have to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. Gold was slightly lower today. The US dollar was down but interest rates increased. A mixed picture to be sure. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/4. The gold shares followed the overall market today. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are still right where I bought them. Light volume equals no interest as I am early for this trade in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term overbought but it can stay that way during stock rallies. Bollinger bands still contracting here. They've also contracted on some of the major stcok indices and prices are at the top band. So I think it's safe to say that we are going to see prices move up promptly or we've got the next decline set up. After todays price action it looks like things are going to go higher. The bear market could be over but it's not set in stone. We'll know more as the week unfolds. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if there is some upside follow through tomorrow.

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