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Thursday, July 07, 2022

The summar rally continues as the Dow jumped 346 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ leading the way is bullish. Getting short term overbought but not there yet. The next goal will be to make it past 50 day moving averages for the stock indices. If we keep moving up like today, that won't be a problem. There is other overhead resistance but one step at a time. Could the bear market be over? Yes, there is that possibility but I'm holding out for lower prices in the autumn. We'll let the markets dictate the action and right now it's for higher prices. A rally ahead of tomorrows jobs report says whatever we get there shouldn't be a problem. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates rose. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. Still waiting on the longer term buy signal for GDX here. May or may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped and closed below the first line of resistance. This implys more rally for stocks. It is short term oversold now but in rallies the VIX remains that way. Plenty of room before the next resistance line at 21 but it will have to get through the 200 day moving average at 24 before that. My guess is that we're in a bear market rally until things turn back down again. With the caveat that the decline could be over and the bottom is in. It is not a clear cut picture either way at the moment for the longer term prognosis. The recent resilience of the small stocks is a boost for the bulls. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the first week in July tomorrow.

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