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Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow dropped 228 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but we didn't finish on the lows of the day. The main indices are holding above their 50 day moving averages for now. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Too late for the SPY August puts if this is indeed the begining of an extended decline. However with the summation index still moving up we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now. Tomorrow of course could change everything. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up more than 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average for the summer. GDX remains oversold on the short and medium term time frames. It is also pretty far from its 50 day moving average on the daily chart. The problem is that it's remained far from the 50 day for a month without a hint of trying to get back to it. Just an occaisional one day bounce like today. I am looking for a weak GDP report on Thursday but with so many losing GDX call trades in a row I'm going to have to remain on the sidelines there. At least I suppose that I should. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped higher today. The short term indicators here have turned up. We did not get to the 22 level on the VIX as I had hoped to initiate the SPY August put idea. We'll wait and see if we get there before a decline really gets going. Or we are already at the beginning of the next leg down. I'm not exactly sold on that theory just yet as the market isn't selling off as strong as it did before. Patience for now. Plenty of time left in the August option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

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