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Thursday, July 28, 2022

Upside follow through to yesterdays great gains as the Dow rose 332 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. GDP came in weak again as we expected as it was a negative reading. The market didn't care as we are in summer rally mode. It certainly appears that the bear market is over but we cannot be 100% certain just yet. However the evidence is leaning that way. The Russell 2000 is right on the down trend line that began in November. The Russell led the way down and it will lead the way up. I do think that tomorrows inflation data will put a pause in the rally. I did place a couple of orders for the SPY August puts but none were filled. With the summation index heading higher the path of least resistance for stocks is up. Gold jumped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 2 3/4, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was good again to the upside for the gold shares. However with the price of gold moving up dramatically, we did not see the gold shares participate as much as they should have. Not sure what that implies. The short term indicators have turned up for the gold shares and it looks like they'll have a positive week for a change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is just about at the 22 level. Again along with the Russell 2000 the VIX is at the moment of truth for the end of the bear market. If the market does drop tomorrow as we anticipate, we'll wait to try the SPY puts again ahead of the employment report next week. If we rally off of the inflation data then we'll have to take a step back and reorganize. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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