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Monday, July 18, 2022

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 215 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Sideways could be the description of the summer rally so far too. The morning started promising for the bulls but it fizzled out. I still think that we'll see higher prices this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract, which implies a big move coming one way or the other. The TRAN finished positive. Some indices are challenging their 50 day moving averages. Gold was higher early but faded and only had a slight gain. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was up 1 3/8 but GDX only managed to gain 1/8. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are right where I bought them. If the market fades here the gold shares will probably follow. I'm looking for higher equity prices this week but what do I know? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bumped up as the 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance to go lower for now. If the VIX can get down to 22 we'd feel good about trying the SPY puts. For now it's just another trading day in the summer as we wait for the Fed next week. Earnings for the 2nd quarter are just getting started. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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