Friday, July 15, 2022
The summer rally is back as the Dow gained 658 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. We had a gap up at the open and then more buying at the close. Retail sales came in better than anticipated. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the other major stock indices have turned back up. The first target for the S&P will be a down trend line at 3910 and then the 50 day moving average at 3940. That is assuming todays price action was not something option expiration related. There is the chance that the longer term decline is over for good but we'll find out more as the summer moves along. Gold was off a couple bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX September calls are back to what I paid for them. It appears that I'm early on this trade. Todays retail sales data also puts in question my view of a negative 2nd quarter GDP rport. GDX does remain both short and medium term oversold so at least the trade has that going for it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped over 2 points and is close to the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators have rolled back down and that implies higher stock prices in the near term. 22 on the VIX is the number that we're looking for to try the SPY puts again. That is the final resistance trend line there. A break below that number would say the bear market is over according to the VIX. Plenty of work to do this weekend to try and figure out where we go from here. I'm looking for a near term rally but I suppose earnings will have a lot to say about that. A week and a half until the Fed. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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