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Wednesday, July 27, 2022

The Fed raised rates as expected and the market rejoiced at what it heard afterward as the Dow climbed 436 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Chairman Powell said that we are not in a recession and the market cheered. Buyers took control from the open when we had a gap higher. There were no sellers to be found. It appears that the bear market has come to an end but we'll know for sure in the coming days. The NASDAQ was the clear outperformer and that is a plus. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned back up. GDP on tap for tomorrow and inflation data on Friday. If we simply continue to go up, we'll declare the bear dead. Gold rallied on the Fed as the futures rose $15. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was good to the upside for the gold shares. We finally have two days in a row for gains in the gold shares. Is this the bottom there? Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX rolled back down and remains short term oversold. Are we still planning on trying the SPY August puts if it gets to 22? It is about a point away. 22 on the VIX is the last area of resistance to the downside. If we break through there we will also have another reason to declare the bear dead. The Russell 200 led the way down and it could lead the way back up. The down trend line in effect since November is about to be tested. If that breaks it is another reason to turn longer term bullish. The level is around 185 there. However if we get to 185 and the VIX gets to 22 that would be the ideal time to try the SPY puts. You will know rather quickly whether the trade will work or not. If we see upside follow through, we could get to these levels tomorrow. So we'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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