The rally continues as the Dow added 274 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher and that is a good thing for the bulls. We are right back to the resistance of 4470 at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. Short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P so I do believe that the rally will stall here. It was a very positive week for stocks but we'll have to see if we get any follow through going forward. The down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many of the major stock averages. But after moving straight up for 4 days some kind of pause is due. I'm still a believer in lower prices later this year before the selling is complete. I could be wrong. Gold lost $25 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX slid 3/8. Volume was good. I'm still a fan of the gold shares and will look to try the calls again on GDX if it gets back to the up trend line at 35. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I had expected some selling from yesterdays VIX reading but it did not occur. If the VIX can make it back to 20, I'll consider the SPY puts. However we are rolling into the April option cycle next week and the premiums are inflated. Perhaps some sideways to higher stock prices will make things more attractive. It was a good week for stocks but one must remember that in down trends rallies spring out of nowhere. If we continue higher next week I might have to change my view. But for now I would not be a longer term buyer yet. Asia and Europe were slightly higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 417 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index is now moving up. Sellers are gone for now as we are breaking down trend lines in the major averages that have been in effect since the beginning of January. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that is a plus. The next area of resistance that we're looking at are the upper Bollinger bands and the 200 day moving average for the S&P. These come in around the 4470 level. The short term indicators here are getting short term overbought but are not there yet. I'm not looking for new all time highs anytime soon. I'm guessing a sideways channel until we go lower later this year. But we'll see. Gold rallied with the futures up around $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume was average. I still like the gold shares going forward and am looking at the April and May calls for GDX. GDX has an up trend line at the 35 level. If we can somehow make it back to there with an oversold technical condition, that would be the time to try the calls. Mentally I'm doing OK despite getting stopped out on those GDX calls yesterday only to see them rally today. At least the idea was correct in theory but we're here to make money. The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average and is touching the lower Bollinger band. It is also short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. This seems to imply that volatility is about to pick up again and we should see some selling. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We did see some of the positive expiration week bias this time around. Asia was up and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Two days in a row to the upside as the Dow climbed 518 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up but still stuck in a sideways channel. The Fed raised rates but it was already a known fact so it did not rile the markets. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. It looks like the next stop is the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of January. The S&P is also below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll see if things can break through to end the recent decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher again and that's a plus. I get the feeling that we're going to break the recent down trend lines for the major stock indices but we will have to wait and see. I could change my mind once we get there depending on the technicals. Gold was about flat after dropping early on the futures. The US dollar was lower despite the Fed. Interest rates creeped up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other after dropping lower during the session. I was stopped out of my GDX March call trade for a 50% loss. After getting stopped out GDX turned around and those same calls are right back to what I paid for them. That is the problem with stops. It does save losses from getting bigger when things continue to go against the trade. But it also doesn't always let the trade work the way you thought it would at times. I still like the gold share calls and will try them again in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. 2 losing trades this week although not a lot of money was involved. But it does drain your confidence. The VIX was lower and has reached its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold as well. This indicator is perhaps saying that the rally here won't be one that lasts. I'm not so sure. I'll let the rest of the week play itself out and take it from there. The market is still at the mercy of external factors. Europe and Asia had big gains overnight as money is moving back into stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Once again a rally simply appears out of nowhere as the Dow gained 599 points on the now usual heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a channel and still in negative territory. Can we get more than one day with price gains? We'll find out tomorrow. We all know the Fed will raise interest rates and my thinking is that it's already been factored in. Perhaps we'll see some more buying with the positive expiration week bias. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back to mid-range. So it's anybodies guess which way we go tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. We're still in headline risk mode though. No SPY trades in mind right now for the short term. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped almost $45. What goes up in a straight line usually comes back the same way. The US dollar was steady and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX had a slight gain. Volume was average. Gold has a huge drop and the gold shares don't follow? That's a plus for the gold shares. My GDX March calls somehow have a slight gain with only 3 days left. The inflation data came in where expected and GDX opened with a big gap lower. But my stop loss order wasn't hit and the gold shares made it all the way back. Not sure what happens tomorrow but I will hold on to this trade until we get the Fed announcement and see what happens there. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range so it could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it finally closed below 30. Still above the 50 day moving average and a long way from the 20 level. My next idea is to wait for the S&P to reach the down trend line at 4375 and try the April SPY puts. We'll see. I'd expect some volatility tomorrow with the Fed. Asia was mostly lower and Europe had slight losses. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments ahead of the Fed.

The Dow held up better than most today but it was an overall negative session for stocks. The industrials were flat on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off 2%. The S&P 500 was lower and is not yet short term oversold. Inflation data out tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. The trend remains lower until proven otherwise. Perhaps the positive option expiration bias will appear. However we are still in a headline driven volatility market, so anything goes. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell around $30. The US dollar was steady but interest rates jumped. The XAU lost 7, while GDX fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. I did put in an overnight order for the GDX March calls and it was filled early. I did have a stop loss order in and the price went right through it. It eventually came back to get filled and the loss was just shy of 50%. That fits with the main goal of this year which is not to take big losses. If the position gets cut in half it obviously was the wrong idea or time. I did place another order for the GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price later in the session. It too was eventually filled and I'm holding it ahead of tomorrows inflation report. That was the original plan to have some GDX calls ahead of that report. Although I'm not sure how long I'll hold this one. It has a slight profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators are mid-range so we could go either way from here. The market is overdue for some kind of rally but we haven't been able to put anything together lately. Small stocks are on the verge of breaking the recent lows. The 50 day moving average is about to break the 200 day moving average to the downside for the S&P 500. Interesting times. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 229 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still stuck in a sideways range in negative territory. We started with a gap higher and then drifted down for the rest of the session with a sharper decline in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold and have room to move lower. With the Fed on tap along with option expiration, next week should be interesting to say the least. There will be opportunities and I'll be looking for them this weekend. I'm not sure which way things will go. We're still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. Gold did come off of the worst levels of the session. The XAU dropped almost 2 and GDX was off around 2/3. Volume was average. We're still short term overbought for the gold shares but not at extremes. I may try the GDX March calls again next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was bit higher today and that at least fits with the decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range indicating things could go one way or the other for the market. Plenty to ponder the next couple of days while checking the charts. The one thing that remains constant is the volatility. Option premiums are still sky high but next week the time premium will be getting taken out as we move towards Friday. Trading will have to remain nimble and quick as that is what the game calls for now. Hopefully we'll be up to the challenge. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers were back today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still meandering in a sideways channel. We were off by 400 during the session so it could have been worse. Volume was lighter today so perhaps the selling will take a break tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside though and that's not a plus. The S&P 500 short term indicators are back to mid-range so we could go either way here. The inflation data was about in line with what was expected. I'm now looking at both the puts and calls for the SPY with just over a week to go in the March option cycle. We are still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold was up around a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was back to average which is lighter than it's been. We got the expected bounce up for GDX from the inflation data early on and I sold the March calls there for about a 135% profit. This was a short term trade that worked out and I might try it again next week ahead of the producer price report. GDX does however remain both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. These are not normal market times. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to guard against being overconfident just because we had a winning trade. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. Still above the 30 level though and not close to the 50 day moving average yet. Not sure what to make of it since being lower for the VIX along with lower stock prices doesn't fit the usual pattern. I suppose we'll continue to wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back to the down trend line that now comes in at 4400. Trying the SPY puts there makes sense for now. The 50 day moving average is about to cross below the 200 day moving average for the S&P. That is a long term sell signal. Most of the other major indicaes have already done this including the Dow. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 653 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trying to turn up again. It remains trading in a channel below the zero line in negative territory. Commodities fell today led by oil and that could be one of the excuses for the rise. Oversold conditions is another and now the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts to that. I do think that as time goes on we'll still see lower prices for stocks. The market is in a down trend until proven otherwise. Gold got clobbered today as what goes up in a straight line usually falls back like that too. The precious metal futures dropped almost $45. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares came back from their worst levels early in the morning. Considering the huge drop in gold the gold shares continued to attract capital. I did place an overnight order for some GDX March calls in case of a drop and it got filled first thing in the morning. The gold shares are both short and medium term overbought. This is a trade in normal times that wouldn't make sense at all. But these are not normal times. I wanted to try the calls ahead of the inflation data due out and somehow the order was filled because the price I was willing to pay wasn't even near the closing price yesterday. But we got a big decline early and now we're in the trade. It is showing a small profit. Remember what I said about needing to be nimble and quick? Hopefully I can be and probably will be out of this trade tomorrow morning. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains above the 30 level. More overbought than oversold here. Ideally we'd like to see this indicator fall back to the 50 day moving average as the S&P 500 makes its way back to the down trend line that began in January. That would give us a chance to try the SPY puts. But the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. We're still at the mercy of the Russian/Ukraine conflict for now. Asia was mixed while Europe had huge rallies. We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

It was a crazy back and forth session as the Dow fell 184 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower but there is no conviction either way here. The Dow was up almost 600 at one stage of the game. The market remains hostage to the situation in the Ukraine. The S&P 500 is on its lower Bollinger band but the short term indicators are not completely oversold yet. The SPY option premiums remain extraodinarily high due to the extreme volatility. Right now it appears that all signs are pointing lower and taking out the 4100 on the S&P. But the market is in crazy mode and a 1000 point rally to the upside can not be counted out either if just to relieve the oversold condition. I'n on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed over sixty bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower but interest rates moved up. The gold shares finished well off of their highs, with the XAU gaining 1 3/8 and GDX up 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy as it can be looked at as an upside blow off on the daily charts. I do still like the gold shares here though and I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow ahead of Thursday inflation report. The problem is that the gold shares and gold are so overbought on both a short and medium term basis that you just don't know how long this rally can last. Plus when things go up in a straight line they always come back down the same way and fast. Today could have been the beginning of that for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite the drop in stocks which doesn't fit. Not sure what that means. We are in volatile times caused by a war that was not completely expected. The geo-political turmoil is off the charts with disruptions, sanctions etc. Hopefully we'll be able to take advantage of the opportunities with some of our long term capital commitments. As for the trading, you've got to be quick and nimble. Don't hold on to anything too long. We're in fast market conditions for now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. It seems like we've had a weeks worth of trading and it's only Tuesday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The selling continued today as the Dow fell 797 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. No end in sight for the Russian/Ukraine conflict seems to be the culprit. It looks like we're going to test the recent lows of 4100 on the S&P 500. The short term indicators there have turned down and are not yet oversold. Will things hold up? Hard to say with headline risk in the forefront. I will say that when a cease fire or peace agreement is reached we should see at least a one day huge rally. But we aren't there yet. Options premiums remain inflated for the SPY so we're still on the sidelines there. Gold continued to move straight up as the futures added another $35 to close at the $2000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up about a point. Volume remains heavy and GDX remains short term overbought. Starting to move straight up for GDX as well and that never ends well but we don't know how long it will continue. Commodity markets are setting new highs with no relief in sight. Prices for consumers continue to rise with no relief in the picture. Stock markets around the globe are selling off as the Russian/Ukraine situation will affect things in a negative way due to rising costs for goods. It is an interesting situation to say the least. Throw in the Fed cutting back on the easy money and you can see the problems the market will have going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and is getting short term overbought but not there yet. Above 35 now and this indicator usually doesn't stay this high for long. However we are in an unstable situation now given what's going on in the world and the markets. Fear has taken over so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The only thing we can count on with any degree of certainty is that volatility will remain. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Lower again today but a burst of buying in the last ten minutes saved it from being worse. The Dow fell 180 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to grind higher without much success. Down from the start today as the combination of the Russian/Ukraine conflict with a stronger than expected jobs report induced selling. It could have been worse as we were off over 500 early on. The NASDAQ again led the way down and that's a negative. The short term indicators there and with the S&P 500 remain mid-range despite the selling. The bulls have to hope things stay that way or improve because if not we'll be back down to test the recent lows. With inflation data due out next week that will probably be high, I don't think that a rally is in the cards near term. I could be wrong. Any good news about the war will send stocks up in a hurry in my view. But for now down trend lines for the major averages remain in effect. Gold soared as the safe haven money is pouring in. The futures gained $35. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as money seeks a safe place. The longer the conflict carries on, the higher these assets will go. The XAU climbed 4 7/8, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. GDX is breaking through the down trend line on the weekly chart with good volume. It is a valid breakout. Both short and medium term overbought here for GDX. It is also pretty far above both the 50 and 200 days moving averages. I should have chased it long ago but you cannot ignore the money flow into the gold shares. I'll try the calls on the next pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of its best levels. Volatilty is here to stay according to this indicator. Two weeks to go in the March option cycle. Premiums remain too high on the SPY for me to attempt anything there for now. We're still at the mercy of the headlines form Ukraine. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week with losses as money continues to flee risk assets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Trying to make up its mind as the Dow fell 96 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. In normal times you could say today was just waiting on the jobs report tomorrow. But these are not normal times as we are in a headline risk mode because of the Russian invasion. The S&P 500 short term indicators are stuck at mid-range. The premiums on the SPY options are so high that it may not matter anyway. The volatility premium now built into the options is so high that it is cost prohibitive to attempt them. The NASDAQ was turned back at the down trend line on the daily chart. Can we bounce back tomorrow? We're at an important juncture there. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX was up 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is sitting right at the down trend line on the weekly chart that goes back to 2020. It is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. In rallies, that doesn't matter. Money continues to pour into the gold shares. The option premiums here have jumped as well due to the unending interest in the precious metal. My thinking is that when there is a cease fire in the Ukraine gold will drop and then we'll take a look at the April calls there. But we cannot know for certain when that will occur. We do have inflation data due out next week and that could push GDX through the longer term down trend line and attract even more buyers. This is one move that should have been chased. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished pretty much flat today. Could go either way here as I'm not getting a good indication of what it is implying here. There's still plenty of time left in the March option cycle for a trade but those premiums are pricey. Perhaps tomorrow will give us a better idea of what's going on. Asia was mixed and Euope lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 596 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The war still goes on and the Fed is ready to raise interest rates. But the market moves on. The NASDAQ is now on the cusp of breaking through its down trend line and one more day like today will do it. The summation index is trying to make up its mind where to go and it appears that it will be to the upside. It has hung around in negative territory for too long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. That down trend line now comes in at 4450. I'm not sure if we'll try the SPY March puts there if the summation index continues higher. More Fedspeak tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday. Gold took a breather as the futures fell $15. The US dollar was a bit lower and fell back from the highs of the session. Interest rates went back up as the Fed is ready to fight inflation. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. Money contiues to pour into the gold stocks. They remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX retreated today but still remains above the 30 level. It appears that volatility is here to stay. For now. The small stocks are holding up better here. A break of their down trend lines could change the bearish picture. Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there. The TRAN broke through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January today. Usually the TRAN and the NASDAQ are the leaders of the overall trend. We'll keep a close eye on the ongoing developments. But don't be surprised if prices keep moving up here. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading action. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 597 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways in a congestion zone and in negative territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ are rolling over. It's all about the headlines coming out of the Ukraine as the market is being held hostage at the moment. We've got the Fed chairman Powell speaking before Congress for the next two days but will it matter? Options premiums for the SPY are still elevated due to the volatility. The NADAQ is closer to breaking through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January. We'll keep an eye on that as that index has held up better lately. The S&P 500 indicators are still mid-range. My thinking is that peace will break out sooner rather than later and stocks will rally but I could be wrong. Gold soared on the haven effect and the gold futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continue to fall. Perhaps these markets know something that we don't. The XAU gained 6 1/2, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. GDX is on the verge of breaking through a down trend line on a weekly basis that has been in effect since mid 2020. Money has been flocking to the gold shares in what seems to be a perfect storm there for the bulls. I still like the GDX calls but obviously I'm too late and too slow for this move. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off higher today and reached the 35 level before pulling back. Not sure what will happen next here. If the VIX continues higher we should see a rapid decline in stocks. If not perhaps we'll see that down trend line in the NASDAQ get breached to the upside and the bearish climate will change. It's a pretty fluid situation at the moment with the Ukraine wild card thrown into the mix. We've got the state of the Union speech tonight in the US but I don't think that will be a market mover either way. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back and forth was the name of the game today as the Dow fell 166 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. We are in headline risk mode as the war between Russia and the Ukraine is at the forefront. My guess is that the market is turning back up here and making its way back to the down trend line for the S&P. The NASDAQ was higher today and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have made it back to mid-range. We'll look for the S&P to make it back to 4480 and decide what to do from there. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX were basically unchanged on good volume. I'm still waiting for GDX to make it down to the 33 level or lower to try the April calls there but it may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today as the volatility continues. It remains elevated with the short term indicators mid-range. The Dow gained over 300 points in the final half hour. That's the kind of market that we're in at the moment. Opportunities to be sure but you better be nimble and keep a close eye on the ongoing developments. We do have a game plan in place as we will wait for the S&P 500 to make it back to the down trend line that began in January and decide whether or not to try the March SPY puts there. Europe was lower and Asia generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the ongoing developments this evening.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 834 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to stabalize. I think it will be successful. The head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 has now been negated with the move back above the neckline. A case could be made that we are simply making another down sloping neckline but time will tell on that. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up. Yesterday was a washout to the downside early on panic selling which marks the end of the decline for now. We will wait for the S&P to get back to the down trend line at around 4480 to try the SPY March puts. At this rate we'll be there in a couple days but I'm not predicting a straight line back up. The market does however go where it wants. Gold was lower again and the futures closed below $1900. The dollar dropped as well and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/4. Volume was lighter than lately. I again put in an order for some GDX calls overnight but canceled it during the session. The gold shares followed the market higher today. I am looking out to the April contracts for GDX. I'd prefer to see GDX get to short term oversold before trying this next trade but that may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Ideally we'd like to see the VIX move down to the 20 level before attempting the SPY puts. But markets rarely cooperate with what we'd like. Stocks looked like they would fall off a cliff this week but the indices held on. There is a lot of bears out there now in the press and that makes me think that a rally is at hand. Not back to new all time highs but perhaps enough to get through that down trend line that has been in effect since January on the S&P. That would change the sentiment back to bullish and set up the next leg lower. It is also possible that the decline has ended for good since we are in negative territory on the summation index and probably about to turn back up. So there is plenty to ponder going forward. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was one of those days on Wall street as we had a huge gap lower at the open and then made it all the way back. Russia invaded the Ukraine overnight and that sent markets into a tizzy. The Dow finished up 91 points after being down 900. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still heading down. Volume was very heavy as the one day reversal to the upside probably halts the downturn for now. The S&P 500 was off 100 points and then finished up over 60. The short term technical indicators here have turned up. Short covering and bargain hunters showed up today. Once the invasion took place, what other bad news could possibly come out? The market is in a headline risk mode. We'll wait for the S&P to get back to the down trend line and try the SPY puts there. The NASDAQ led the way back today and that is a plus. Gold had a reversal too but it was the other way around. The futures lost a dozen after opening up over fifty. The dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed after falling early. The XAU 2 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was extremely heavy here as traders bailed out on the news of the Russian action. I did place an order for the GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled and I canceled it when gold began to drop. The gold shares did finish off of their lows for the session. The short term indicators for GDX have turned lower. If I do attempt the GDX calls it probably would be better to go out to the April contracts. Not exactly sure what to do here and I'll ponder this idea overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed early and then reversed as the market rallied. It finished a bit lower but is still above 30. The short term indicators are trying to turn down and a positive session for stocks tomorrow should do it. But who knows what tomorrow will bring ahead of the weekend. Today the bulls took a stand to not to have the market collapse. Short covering played a role in that. However interest rates are still set to rise, inflation hasn't gone away and neither has the coronavirus. The summation index is still in negative territory and still moving lower. So I certainly don't think that today was the final bottom for stocks going forward but I could be wrong. Europe and Asia got clobbered overnight. Perhaps they can get a bounce like the US tonight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Stock markets continued lower today as the Dow fell 464 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. Todays price action takes us through the neckline of the head and shoulders top. Things would have to turn around immediately to save us from a pretty nasty drop from these levels. When a market is oversold and stays that way it always means trouble. We should have at least seen some kind of bounce recently but it hasn't happened. 3800 or lower is the measuring objective of the head and shoulders. The retest of Januarys lows is about to fail. Gold was up around five bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was average. The gold shares continue to attract money despite being overbought. I'm still looking at the GDX March calls but cannot bring myself to buy them when they are so overbought. Still remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today as yesterdays black candlestick on the daily chart did not turn things around. Almost completely short term overbought here. The VIX closed above the 30 level as volatility is here to stay. We also have the summation index in negative territory and moving lower. Interesting times indeed. We'll need to see some kind of market stabalization tomorrow or things will get ugly to the downside fast. With the current geo-political problems and the prospect of higher interest rates it will be tough for the market to sustain anything to the upside. Probably the most we can hope for is not an all out collapse near term. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 482 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Stocks did finish up from their lows of the session. It looks like this is a retest of the lows from the end of January and so far things have held up. The bulls need to show up here or the measuring objective of the head and shoulders top on the S&P 500 is the 3800 area or lower. Ideally I'd like to see things hold here, a light volume rally back to the down trend line and that would set us up for the March SPY puts. The premiums on the puts now are inflated due to the time left and the current volatility. Russia vs. Ukraine is still dominating the headlines but this won't go on forever. The S&P 500 remains below its 200 day moving average but is short term oversold. Any sign of something that avoids an all out war should spur a rally. Gold finished up only a buck after being higher early on. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and I'm trying to remain patient here before attempting the calls again. Gold has had a good run and some kind of move lower or consolidation is due in my opinion. However we have seen money come into the precious metals and I believe that they have more room to go on the upside longer term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but there is a black candlestick on the daily chart which could turn the VIX lower in the near term. The short term technical indicators here are still pointing up though. So this indicator is giving mixed signals. The NASDAQ didn't lead the way down today and that's a slight plus. We're at an important juncture for the market right now so paying close attention is necessary even more than usual. Asia was lower but Europe finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow fell 232 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold but not completely so. We'll try and remain patient and wait for prices to get back to the down trend line that has been in place since the beginning of January. There are also potential head and shoulders patterns on some of the major stock index daily charts. The problem there is when everybody sees the same thing, it usually doesn't happen. Gold treaded water today after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. Remaining short term overbought for GDX. GDX is due to take a break and we'll wait for that before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite a down market. That doesn't fit the normal pattern. Not sure what to make of it. Still above the 20 level on the VIX so volatilty in in the forefront. The S&P 500 closed the week below its 200 day moving average. The weekly chart has price almost at the lower Bollinger band. The indicators here are oversold but have room to move lower. Monday is a holiday in the US. Waiting for Russia to invade the Ukraine seems to be roiling the markets. I don't expect that to happen but who knows? The market is also hostage to higher interest rates and inflation for now. We recognize that money is flowing into gold and will try and take advantage of that situation. We also see that the game has changed as stock market rallies are now for selling. I'll try to keep these things in mind going forward. An extra day of rest this weekend and it is welcomed. Plenty of work to do as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 622 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. More geo-political tensions as the Ukraine situation continues to be in the headlines. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is negative. The S&P 500 is back below its 200 day moving average and the short term indicators have rolled back over. I had thought we'd see some gains going into tomorrows expiration but that guess was wrong. We'll stick with the technicals when it comes to trading. Long weekend ahead and I don't expect anybody to be buying now ahead of it. I'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold is moving straight up on the prospect of war. Getting ahead of itself in my humble opinion but you cannot argue with price. We hit $1900 today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates dropped. The XAU soared 4 points, while GDX was up 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now pretty far away from its 50 day moving average and also short term overbought. That doesn't mean that it won't go higher but we'll wait for some type of pullback before thinking about the calls here. There is a longer term down trend line at the 36 level that should stop things if we get there. Money is definately moving into gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around today and if it continues we'll see lower stock prices near term. There is room on the short term indicators to move up and we are not overbought here yet. Down trend lines continue to rule the daily stock index charts. Perhaps we're on our way to retest the recent lows in the S&P. We'll have to wait and see if they hold. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag type of session as the market tried to figure out where it wants to go. The Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is tracking sideways. Retail sales were better than expected but the market sold off. The Fed minutes gave things a boost later in the day. The Dow and NASDAQ finished in the red, with the S&P 500 showing a small gain. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So we could go either way here but I do think the market will head higher into option expiration. That's a guess as usual. Gold was up $15 on the futures as the rally continues. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX climbed another point. Volume remains good here. Barrick Gold, the second largest gold producer, announced a billion dollar buyback today. Three days before the February option expiration. Coincidence? I'll let you decide. Short term overbought for GDX and I was looking at the February puts here for a short term trade. But the risk is plenty with only two days left. The better trade is probably waiting for a pullback in GDX to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still above the important 20 level. The technicals here are also mid-range. Really no point in guessing here, I'll just try and wait for a valid signal either way. The down trend line for the S&P 500 is still in charge. We've got a long weekend ahead with the Presidents holiday on Monday. So patience is advised for now. Europe was lower and Asia higher in last evenings trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a bounce today as it now appears that the so called conflict in the Ukraine is not going to happen. The Dow climbed 422 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways as it cannot make up its mind where to go. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The inflation data was stronger than expected but the market shrugged it off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias going into the expiration on Friday. We'll get the Fed minutes tomorrow and that has the potential to be a market mover. Too late for any SPY February option cycle trades for me at this point. Gold fell on the prospect of peace as the futures dropped $15. The US dollar fell as well but interest rates continued higher. The gold shares sold off early but made their way back. The XAU shed about 1 1/2 and GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today as the daily candlestick chart pattern there proved to be correct. The short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies that we'll see more gains for stocks. So for now we'll wait for the prices on the S&P to get back to the down trend line and decide what to do when they get there. That would be the area to try the SPY puts again but premiums will be high as we roll into the March option cycle. For now we'll just wait and see. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market is trying to figure out what to do here as the Dow fell 172 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move lower. The Dow was the underperformer today. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average but the short term indicators are trying to turn back up here. Inflation data out tomorrow will be the primary market mover. 4 days to go in the February option cycle and I'm leaning towards maybe trying the SPY calls. Gold continued its run higher as the futures gained thirty dollars. The US dollar was up, joining in the flight to safety trade. Bonds however did not take part as interest rates rose. The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was good. Money is finding a home in gold but we are now short term overbought. We will have to wait for GDX to get back to oversold before trying the calls here again. This a move that we missed after trying the calls in the January option cycle. I am a believer here now though and will not hesitate to try the calls when the time appears to be right. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 30 again today. The short term indicators continue to move higher and imply more selling. However the daily candlestick chart here indicates that a turnaround is possible right away. I'm not sure exactly what to think but if we have conflicting technicals it's better to wait until the majority line up one way or the other. Probably the prudent thing to do here is let the February option cycle pass and get ready for March. I sold the SPY February puts too early and missed the GDX calls for this month. Perhaps the sidelines is where I'll stay for now. But we'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Geopolitical tensions were the excuse for todays market action as the Dow fell another 500+ points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways band. It remains in negative territory and that is unusual. A report surfaced today from the US that Russia will stage an attack on the Ukraine next week. As if the US knows what plans the Russians have for an invasion. The NASDAQ led the way down again. The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average. The down trend line that began in the beginning of January remains in effect. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over and have room to go lower. Sure wish I still had those SPY February puts. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P looks negative. Option expiration week on tap and I wouldn't chase anything here. Gold soared as the flight to safety trade took over for today. The precious metal futures rose over twenty five bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as bonds became a haven. The XAU jumped 6 2/3, whike GDX gained 1 3/4. Volume was heavy. It was a complete reversal from yesterdays price action here. I did put in an order for some GDX February calls but it never came close to being filled. I was too slow to react as the move in the gold shares caught fire. Getting short term overbought now for the gold shares but there is a little room for the indicators to go higher. But what happens if there is no invasion next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked again but did finish off of its best level of the day. It was up over 30. There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to go higher. If the indicators do continue up we'll see quite a drop in stock prices next week. I'm not so sure that will happen but the potential is there. Volatility rules for now. There will be some opportunities next week with options expiration but you'll have to be pretty nimble. I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with something. However the risk will be elevated with not a lot of time left and inflated option premiums. Hopefully I'll be up for the challenge. Europe and Asia were lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took over the day as the Dow fell 526 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The inflation data came in a bit worse than expected. We sold off early, made it all the way back to unchanged and then fell apart. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought on some of the indicators despite todays drop. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside. I sold the SPY February puts that I purchased yesterday early in todays session for a 40% gain. It proved to be the wrong move as they were worth much more by the close. This trade had a good entry and a lousy exit. I may consider trying the puts again next week ahead of the wholesale inflation data. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. The US dollar bounced around but finished higher. Interest rates climbed again with the ten year treasury now north of 2%. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. I'm still considering the GDX February calls but there's only six days left in the February option cycle. However I could also make the case for sitting out until there is a better technical entry point. Mentally I'm a bit disappointed for getting out of the SPY put trade so early. But at the time it looked like the early stock decline was not going to hold. But it did and ended up going lower. That trade is over and must be put behind as the markets will keep moving. Other opportunites will follow. The VIX spiked higher as the 20 level held. It is back above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators for the VIX have turned back up. If the indicators continue higher, the VIX will climb and the market will fall. I'm not quite that sure that will be the case this time around but we'll see as time goes forward. We do still have a down trend line that remains in effect for the S&P and other indices as well. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see if we get any downside follow through and close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow soared 305 points on good volume. The adance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned higher again. The NASDAQ led the way today and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 has just slightly broken through the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. It is short term overbought. I went back and forth about trying the SPY February puts ahead of tomorrows inflation data. However I did leave my order out there and it did get filled. It is showing a small loss. The stop loss order is in. If we get some early selling tomorrow I'll be out because the tone of the market has changed and there is much too much bearishness out there. Also the summation index needs to start moving back up as it is in negative territory. It usually does not stay there unless we're in a bear market. Gold was up another six bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower while interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Waiting on tomorrows inflation data. The light volume leads me to believe that there's still a lack of interest here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is right at the 20 level. It is short term oversold. Tomorrows movement will tell us a lot. If the market is higher and the VIX drops through 20, we can say that the market decline has run its course. If the VIX bounces back up from here then volatility is not over yet. I'm banking on the latter but a case could be made either way. At any rate my position has been taken and we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Europe and Asia were both up last night as money is flowing back into stocks around the world. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 372 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led teh way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is getting close to short term overbought. It is also getting close to the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. I've put in an order for the SPY February puts that should get filled if we reach that down trend line. I'm not overly confident in this idea because the summation index needs to start moving back up. But I'm willing to give it a try if it gets filled tomorrow ahead of the inflation data on Thursday. Gold rose six bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light today. The gold shares have done well lately and there's still room on the short term technical indicators to go higher. This was a missed trade on my part but we'll see how it goes into the February expiration. If gold pulls back on the CPI on Thursday perhaps there will be a chance to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and finally made it through the 50 day moving average. Still above 20 though. Short term oversold here as well. If we make it through 20 then I'll be back in the bullish camp despite being oversold. If the 20 level holds then we'll see some more selling and the SPY put idea will work. It's a matter of the market deciding what it wants to do here. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another back and forth session to begin the week as the Dow was up a point on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It looked like we would have solid gains for the indexes but the market tanked in the final hour. That's been the pattern lately. I was hoping for some strength before the inflation data on Thursday in order to try the SPY February puts. Probably won't happen. Staying patient for now. Gold was up almost $15 on the futures. Both the US dollar and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. Looks like I'm too late for the GDX February calls. I do think that the gold shares will move higher into the option expiration at the end of next week. If the overall market decides to sell off and take the gold shares with it perhaps there will be a chance to try this trade. Otherwise I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and has gotten short term oversold. The 50 day moving average has provided resistance for the VIX to move lower so far. It seems to me the next move for the VIX would be higher which would coincide with another market drop. Just a guess on my part. For now I'll wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the down trend line before Thursday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

It was an up and down type of session as the market tried to make up its mind what to do. The Dow was off 21 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The jobs report came in better than expected. We were back and forth then got a decent rally only to drop in the final half hour. The NASDAQ was up over 200 points and that's a plus even though it was mostly due to Amazons earnings beat. We also didn't get any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The S&P 500 remains below its recent down trend line but the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. It might be worth it to try the SPY February puts if we make it back to that line but we'll see. Gold finished up a few bucks after bouncing around during the session. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I did have an order out there for the GDX February calls but canceled it before the close. Not exactly sure now what to do regarding GDX in the near term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. Still above the 50 day moving average and the 20 level. Getting short term oversold on the technical indicators. I have more questions than answers right now and that doesn't inspire much confidence for trading. Plenty to ponder over the weekend while checking out the charts. Two weeks left in the February option cycle so there's time to take on a trade. Some economic data due out next week but Thursdays inflation report will be the most watched. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We saw selling from the start today as the market had a gap lower at the open. The Dow lost 518 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. Earnings were missed will be listed as the cause for todays sell off. But the major indices had gotten back to the now in charge resistance levels and pulled back. The NASDAQ lost over 500 points and the S&P 500 over 100. So the down trend lines are in charge there for now. We'll get jobs data out tomorrow and that should be another market mover. Gold was off a few bucks today. The US dollar continues to fall and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX dropped over 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it and am leaving it out overnight. GDX has slightly risen from its oversold condition and followed the market down today. I'm not exactly sure this trade will work but I'm willing to give it a shot with 2 weeks left in the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but the short term indicators have barely moved up. The 50 day moving average proved to be resistance for the VIX to move lower. Volatility remains the rule when the VIX is over 20. If the VIX continues higher here we will see quite another drop in stocks. My thinking is that perhaps the VIX will move sideways here along with the indicators before we really see the next leg down for stocks. I could be wrong and the market goes where it wants. I also see that the futures have risen after the close today so perhaps a company has come out with better than expected earnings after the bell. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow with all eyes and ears on the jobs report.

Up, up and away as the Dow rose 224 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index has turned back up. We got a very strong move from the extremely oversold condition for the market last week. We are now at the moment of truth as we are just about at the declining tops line for the S&P 500. We're not completely overbought here but it has been a straight line up and I do not think it will continue. I did place a couple orders for the SPY February puts today but they weren't filled. Option premiums remain elevated and that is an issue. However I'm leaving my put order out there and if we do get some upside tomorrow that would be the time to try the puts. But it may already be too late as I see the futures are selling off after the close. Gold was up another five bucks today. The US dollar continues to drop and interest rates remain steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX has stalled at its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher despite the gains today which doesn't fit. It's hanging around its 50 day moving average and still above the important 20 level. As long as it remains above 20 we can expect volatility to continue. Hopefully I'll get a chance for the SPY February puts ahead of the employment report on Friday. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 273 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. It is only a matter of time before it starts to move higher. The Dow was the leader today but the 3 major indices had nice gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up. We now have a down trend line there that comes in at around 4600. That would be the spot to try the SPY February puts. If we get there before Friday, that will most likely be the next trade. Will we just keep moving up to new all time highs? I don't think so but I've been quite wrong before. Gold was up five bucks today. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX February calls but would like to see a trip back down to the 29 level. Probably won't happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is heading lower and closed at its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Still above 20 though. If we can get below there I'll have more confidence in the rally. The VIX has been correct in projecting higher near term stock prices. It also helped that the market was extremely oversold. But the question is where do we go from here? My guess is that the jobs report on Friday has the potential to be a big mover. But we still have two days to go before that. Europe and what was open in Asia were up last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More gains for the last trading day in January as the Dow climbed 406 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving down but is trying to turn back up here. It most likely will be successful. The decline has ended for now and has the possibility of being the low for the year. But probably not as there is still most of 2022 left. The NASDAQ led the way with a sharp gain and that's a positive. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are at mid-range. I'm sure we'll see some selling in the coming days but the 4200 level should hold for now on the S&P. The worst of the selling is over as we reached some extreme oversold levels for stocks. Again, that doesn't mean that we'll move straight up to new all time highs. Most likely sideways until the next leg either way is the likely scenario. If we get to short term overbought for the S&P, I'll be tempted to try the SPY February puts. Gold bounced back today as the futures rose a dozen. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained almost 4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was lighter than its been but not bad. I did have an order in for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. This looks like another missed trade but we'll have to see how the rest of the week goes. If we see some weakness in the coming sessions for the gold shares I'll give this trade a try. Might simply be wishful thinking on my part though as we are moving up from short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is moving lower and still implies more rally to come in the near term. We're still above the 50 day moving average here and well above the 20 level. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving down and are at mid-range. More positive action for stocks seems to be in the cards according to the VIX and that would fit with the summation index turning back up from a very low and negative reading. As we move forward the market action should tell us whether what we just witnessed was simply a correction or the beginning of a bear market. We'll know as time goes on. Europe was higher along with what was open in Asia overnight. Some Asian markets are closed for the Chinese new year. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.

Finally we got a day where a bounce held as the Dow gained 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We were higher for much of the session but then price exploded to the upside in the final hour and a half. Some of it short covering to be sure. Apple earnings appeared to be the catalyst as perhaps things aren't so bad after all. But let's face it. The extreme oversold condition of the market was not going to last forever. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The summation index is negative which rarely happens and it will have to move back up. However I don't think that we are heading to new all time highs anytime soon. An overdue bounce is what we got today and we'll see how things go next week. The bulk of the selling for this move down is probably over. Gold was down a few bucks today but did come up from the lows of the session. The US dollar finished little changed while interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU fell a point, while GDX was off around 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares came off of their lows as well. I did put in an order for the GDX February calls but wasn't filled. Short term oversold for GDX now so I'm willing to try the calls again here. Most likely will put in another order in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today as it is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over and implies that we'll see more price gains and less volatility moving forward. The weekly picture looks like it has put in an evening star on the candlestick chart which would fit with the short term indicators. I would be surprised to see the VIX finish next week higher but we'll have to wait and see. As of right now it appears that the S&P 500 isn't going to retest Mondays lows and the fifth wave down I was expecting isn't going to happen. But one day doesn't make a rally and in down trends it isn't unusual for a day like today to spring out of nowhere. We'll know more by the end of next week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend going over the charts. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Try and try again to bounce but I guess not yet as the Dow fell 7 points on the now normal heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. GDP came in better than expected. An early rally for the S&P 500 turned around and then into a loss for the session. It's a one day reversal to the downside. Still short and medium term oversold and staying that way. This is a rare condition but so is crossing the zero line on the summation index. So the usual market behavior doesn't apply. This too shall pass and we'll see a rally of some sorts sooner or later. The options premiums for the SPY are so inflated now that it just doesn't make sense to try and trade there at the moment. Gold got clobbered again as the futures lost another $30 to close below $1800. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped a bit on a flight to safety. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was good again to the downside. Another down day here will get us to short term oversold for the gold shares. The fundamentals here are not good as a rising dollar along with higher interest rates coming puts a lid on any upside for gold. What used to be the normal buy gold when inflation shows up hasn't worked yet this time around. That said, if the market keeps dropping and the gold shares go with it I'll probably try the GDX February calls again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a market that fell. That doesn't fit the usual relationship. The NASDAQ led things lower again today and that's not a plus. The move lower for the S&P that began at the beginning of the month is taking the shape of a five wave down scenario. It appears that all there is left to do is take the fifth and final wave lower. If that occurs we'll head back to the 4200 level on the S&P or maybe a bit lower. That would also complete the retest of Mondays lows. That's my prognosis for where we'll be going in the next few days. However we are strongly way overdue for at least an upside day. That could happen first. Europe was higher and Asia lower last night. Some inflation data due out here tomorrow morning. We'll close out a wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Another day of bouncing around with the Fed as the Dow fell 129 points on the continued above average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Nothing unexpected or earth shattering from the Fed but we did sell off from nice early gains when chairman Powell spoke to the press. It wasn't the worst of times as the NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but I do think that at least a temporary bottom was put in place on Monday. We've made it through the zero line on the summation index so perhaps the worst is behind us. But we don't exactly know that for sure just yet. We have bounced from Mondays lows but a retest may be in order. Being nimble is key here but I do not expect any kind of sustained rally that would take us back up to where the decline began. I could be wrong. Gold got clobbered as higher interest rates dampen the appeal for the precious metal. The gold futures shed $35. Interest rates went higher along with the US dollar. The XAU lost 4 points while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was good to the downside. I do still like the GDX calls going forward but will wait for them to get short term oversold. Might take a few more days of downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today and remains short term overbought. It is certainly out of the ordinary for the VIX to remain overbought for an extended period of time. That is why there is still a chance that we could see another swift drop for stocks in the near future. Combined with the weakness in the summation index, the market is not out of the woods yet. Stocks also remain oversold on a short and medium term basis but haven't been able to have even a sustained bounce for a session. So caution is still advised. We'll get a look at 4th quarter GDP tomorrow and some wage inflation data on Friday. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We bounced around today after yesterdays wild ride and the Dow ended with a loss of 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Waiting to hear from the Fed tomorrow. I still think that a short term bottom is in place as the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My guess is that we will rally tomorrow no matter what the Fed says because of the oversold nature of things both short and medium term for the market. But we are heading through the zero line on the summation index and falling apart is the prognosis. The early thousand point drop yesterday confirms it. So rather than guess as to what is about to occur I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold contiued to rise as the futures gained around $7 and touched the $1850 level. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added almost 1/4. Volume was average. The GDX call trade that I was stopped out on yesterday has made it back to break even. That is one of the problems using stops. You can be knocked out of the trade before it has a chance to work. On the flip side if you don't use stops it can end up causing you to lose more money by holding on to a position that never comes back. As was the case with the previous GDX trade at the end of last year. My goal for this year is to not take any huge losses so I guess I'll simply be at the mercy of the stops. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back above 30. Still overbought as well. What I'm getting from this is simply to expect more volatility. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Option premiums are elevated and staying in cash for now isn't the worst thing to do. Except you won't make any money that way but you won't lose any either. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to it.

Just another manic Monday as the song goes. In what was one of the crazier days on Wall street, the Dow gained 99 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. A temporary bottom is now in place. At one point the Dow was down over a thousand points. To make all of that back and then some is incredible. Volatility went off the charts. The kind of reversal that we saw today usually means that the decline is over for now. We may come back and test todays low at some point in the future. We saw high volume panic selling today and that marks the end of going lower than todays low of around 4200 for the S&P in the near term. We are still short term oversold here but the indicators have turned back up with todays price action. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly higher as well after dropping early on during the market sell off. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4 on good volume. The gold shares were down much more early along with the stock market. I was stopped out of my GDX February call position for a 40% loss. I tried to purchase these calls again at a better strike price but wasn't filled. Frustrating to say the least. GDX looks like it's put in a short term bottom here as well. I suppose that I'll wait for the Fed announcement on Wednesday before deciding where to go from here regarding the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX surged past 38 and then came all the way back to close below 30. The short term indicators here have rolled over to relieve the overbought condition. It should mean that volatility will subside but who knows? The VIX has gotten pretty far from its 50 day moving average and should at least try to head back towards it. Today we got extremely oversold during the session and the bounce back that we saw was huge. We will say that the decline is over for now. Once again 4200 should hold on the S&P 500 in the days to come. Longer term, maybe not. Such crazy volatility has increased the option premiums all the way around. I'm back on the sidelines but will be looking for the next trade opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to begin the trading week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Down we go as the decline continues. The Dow fell 450 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and we are falling apart approaching the zero line. It doesn't appear that it will hold things up this time around. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold, staying that way and just closed below its 200 day moving average. We should have at least seen a bounce at some point this week but it didn't happen. Getting ugly and even if we see a bounce it probably won't hold. Rolling now into the February option cycle. Gold fell over ten bucks today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell on a flight to safety. The XAU dropped almost 4 points, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled and it's already a loser. Plenty of time for this trade but with the market in what looks to be freefall, the gold shares are going along for the ride. The stop loss order is in though and another day like today will get me out. Perhaps staying on the sidelines for now is the proper course of conduct. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and is almost at 30. Remaining short term overbought on the indicators. Usually the VIX doesn't stay overbought for long but it seems right now is not a usual time. Buyers have vanished. We've got the Fed next week and perhaps they'll calm the markets. Or not. Going through the zero line on the summation index to the downside is a rare event but always interesting to say the least. We're getting close to being down 10% for the S&P and perhaps that will put a temporary hold on the selling. But that's just a guess. The trend is down. Plenty to ponder over the weekend to try and figure out what to do next week. Europe and Asia sank overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to bounce today and was up over 400 points in the morning. But the rally didn't hold and we fell apart in the final couple of hours. The Dow fell 313 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that continues to be a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying there. The next support is the 200 day moving average at around 4425. More concerning is the summation index moving lower and heading towards the zero line again. The zero line has held up recently but that won't happen every time. If we fall through there things will get ugly in a hurry and the market will simply fall apart. The way it is acting seems to be saying that will be the case. Oversold and staying there is a recipe for disastor. We'll see. Gold was off just a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX was down almost 1/2. Volume was good. My order is still out there for the GDX February calls. The problem here is that if the market collapses it will take the gold shares with it. I'll have to reassess this idea tonight. I do still think that the flight to safety trade holds water. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower early but then shot up past 25 to close the day. Short term overbought here and that condition usually doesn't last long for the VIX. Unfortuantely the way the market is acting at the moment isn't the usual conventional way. Sellers are overwhelming the buyers. The tone has changed and we have to change with it. Expiration Friday and what happens is up in the air. Interesting times. The small shares have broken down and it appears that the rest of the market is on its way. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

Continuing lower as the Dow tried to hold on today only to drop by 339 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We did see some buying today but in the final hour sellers arrived and took control. The NASDAQ still remains the downside leader. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. I'd expect at least some kind of bounce before the end of the week. However with the summation index moving down the path of least resistance is lower. Rallies can be sold as the easy money is in the process of being removed. Unfortunately the odds now increase that things will get ugly. Hopefully we'll get a chance at the SPY February puts in the weeks to come. Gold took off to the upside today as the safe haven play is back. The gold futures jumped $30. Bot the US dollar and interest rates were a bit lower. The gold shares exploded to the upside. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX rose 2 1/4. Volume was very heavy which confirms that this move is for real. I canceled the open order that I had for the GDX February calls and replaced it with another one in hopes of eventually getting filled. GDX is short term overbought but I believe this is a move worth chasing. I am definately late though. I do think that trying the February calls here is worth the risk. The markets are in the process of change and I think that gold will stand to benefit at least in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved higher and is short term overbought. It usually doesn't stay that way for long so I'm expecting some kind of upside for the market before the end of this week. Not the beginning of a rally mind you, just something to relieve the selling pressure. Make no mistake, the trend is now down until further notice. Europe had a slight gain and Asia was lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings developments.

A decidedly down day to start the week as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The NASDAQ again led the way south and that is not a good sign. The S&P 500 has just moved into short term oversold territory. The market is adjusting to the fact that there will be less liquidity. In other words there won't be as much money sloshing around to chase stocks. How long the selling lasts is anyones guess but the weekly indicators are not yet oversold. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures but held up rather well despite the negative backdrop. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light as it has been to the downside in the past 3 days here. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls although GDX is not yet short term oversold. Silver had an impressive day to the upside and gold did not drop much as it appears the safe haven factor may be coming into play. It will take more of a drop in GDX to get this order filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped above the 20 level today and the indicators are heading north. We are touching the upper Bollinger band here so perhaps things will turn around tomorrow. Or not. Support for many of the smaller stock indexes has been broken, with a trip to the 200 day moving averages in range. It is expiration week though and I would expect to see buying at some point. But it appears that the tide has turned for equities and rallies will be sold. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of China. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag for sure today as the Dow fell 202 points to close out the week. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still drifting higher. The Dow did come up from the lows of the session as it was down 450 at one stage of the day. Retail sales were weaker than expected and that was one excuse for the decline. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains for the day. The S&P had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. It is doing its best to try and hang on here but it's now down below the 50 day moving average. We also have tops beneath tops on the daily chart here which has a down trend line in place. Perhaps if we make it back to that line we can try the SPY puts. Or maybe the line will be taken out and we'll head for new all time highs. I'm more of a believer of the former. Gold was off 5 bucks today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. None of that fits with a weaker retail sales numbers but the market goes where it wants. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light again to the downside. I am trying to remain patient here but I would certainly like to try the GDX February calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed back lower today and closed below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are mid-range. Not getting a good idea of what this indicator is trying to tell us now. Maybe we'll see the usual expiration week upside bias coming up. I certainly don't know and will remain on the sidelines most likely. It's a long holiday weekend on tap with plenty of work to do regarding what's going on here. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan going forward. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It appears that the bounce is complete as the Dow fell 176 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 176 market would suggest. The summation index is drifting higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That's not a positive. It looks like the S&P 500 is on its way to test last weeks lows as most of the short term technical indicators have rolled over. It is probably too late to buy the SPY January puts. Could things turn around tomorrow? It's possible but we'll need some kind of excuse to be buyers ahead of the long weekend. Gold dropped five bucks but did come up from its lows. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. I'm back to looking at the GDX February calls but in no hurry. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract in the precious metals complex, implying that a big move is on the way. Which way is the question but I'm leaning to the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and closed above its 50 and 200 day averages. It also finished above the 20 level. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go higher. This indicator is now saying volatilty is on the rise and prices are in decline. It fit the bill today. With only 5 days left in the January option cycle, the risk is high to take on a SPY trade. I'm pretty sure that I'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. That seems to be the prudent path for me at the moment. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to trudge higher as the Dow gained 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is turning back up. The inflation data came in high as expected but did not cause any widespread selling. If we stay higher into Friday, I may try the SPY January puts. However the short term technical indicators for the S&P are mid-range. So that may not be the best idea. But if we do make it back to short term overbought on one of my indicators I'll probably do the trade. Gold continued higher today as the futures rose eight bucks. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was average again. I canceled my open order for the GDX February calls as this trade was missed. The sharp rise in the gold shares this week makes me believe that this move up is for real. I'll be looking to attempt the GDX calls on any weakness but the ideal time to try this trade has passed. I was early on my attempt here with the last losing GDX trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains short term oversold but not extremely so. Not really getting a good signal one way or the other from here. My thinking is that the 3 day rally that we've seen in stocks could stall here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. We also have a holiday weekend comng up in the US. I'll remain on the sidelines for now and wait to see how we go for the rest of the week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Bouncing higher today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. Are we heading to new all time highs again? Perhaps but I'm in a wait and see mode for now. We'll get inflation data out tomorrow and the market reaction to that will tell us a lot. Gold rallied today as the futures were up $20. The US dollar along with interest rates went down. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was average. It appears that I've missed the uptrend here for the gold shares as the indicators have turned around and are heading higher. My order for the February calls is still out there but I'll probably end up canceling it. Might try the January calls again for a short term trade if we get a near term pullback. I'm not a fan of missing moves but what can you do? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and it looks like it has room to go lower. It isn't short term oversold yet. If the market rallies tomorrow despite higher inflation and the VIX continues to go down I'll have to change my market outlook. It is never easy trying to interpret exactly what is going to happen. Running out of time in the January option cycle. Perhaps the sidelines remains the place to be for now. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Coming back from the brink today as the Dow fell 163 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. Off almost 600 points early on the markets made steady progress to the upside for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ was off 400 and made it back to positive territory. It appears that a temporary bottom has been put in place today. The market needs a break from the selling and we should see that at least for the beginning of this week. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks today. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 points, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX February calls but it will take a drop to 29 to get the order filled. That may not occur as it appears that the gold shares are ready to reverse right here. But we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike up only to reverse and finish the day below the important level of 20. That's another reason why it isn't out the question to see the market stage some kind of rally from here. The NASDAQ held its 200 day moving average and the Russell 2000 held its long term support. So it appears that at least a temporay bottom is in place. I'm looking for some kind of bounce and it looks like it started today. I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move on Friday and today probably fills the bill although it doesn't look that way on a closing basis. Volatility has picked up. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The selling continues but the Dow only lost 4 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a negative. The payroll numbers were mixed with job creation coming in lower than expected. The S&P 500 still managed to close above its 50 day moving average. I'm expecting some kind of bounce here in the next day or two. Whether or not it turns into the next leg up remains to be seen. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU gained a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is still not completely oversold. If it drops another point to 29, I'll try the February calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today despite the drop in prices. Not exactly sure what that means. The short term indicators are rolling back over. Perhaps we are setting up for the bounce and then we'll see what happens. The NASDAQ is at its near term support and is getting short term oversold. Other stock indices have held up better but the NASDAQ is generally the leader both up and down. If it would continue to drop from here it would spell trouble. We also are not seeing the usual beginning of the year rally. It's a time for caution in my view as the weak beginning to the new year along with the rise in interest rates are not positive events. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and develop some type of game plan for the remaining January option cycle. There will be less than 2 weeks remaining due to a holiday on the 17th. Europe was generally lower with Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way lower today as it dropped 171 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is starting to move sideways. The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow. The S&P 500 held up at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators still have room to fall but they could just as easily turn around after todays price action. We'll see how things react to the jobs report and take it from there. The gold futures lost another $10 today. Rates were steady and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are on their way to becoming oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains below the 20 level. I get the feeling that things could go either way with the VIX from here. The fact that the market did not sell off again today makes me think that tomorrow could be a positive session for stocks. However I do not have a decent signal to trade the SPY options so I will therefore be sitting things out for now. Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. All eyes on the employment report tomorrow to finish off the first week of the new year.

A bout of selling today as the market did not like the tone from the Fed minutes. We had a nasty sell off with two hours to go today as the Dow fell 392 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The NASDAQ got clobbered by over 3% and led the way lower. I had expected prices to continue to rise and that scenario is now in question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and imply that there is more selling to go. We just hit a new all time high so I don't think a protracted decline is on tap but what do I know? We'll see if we get any follow through the rest of the week or if this is just a one day wonder. Gold was up early but gave back all the gains and finished about $5 lower on the session. The US dollar was slightly lower but interest rates continued to rise. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over as well. I sold my position in the January GDX calls for a 90% loss. This trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been sold long ago. I also threw good money after bad and that is a cardinal sin in trading. I got what I deserved I suppose but it isn't how I wanted to start the new year. However like any other trade, win or lose it doesn't matter now and you have to move on. If GDX gets back below 29 I might try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed as losing trades do nothing to help in the confidence department. Moving forward is what's up next. The VIX climbed today with the rout and that makes perfect sense. This indicator had been extremely oversold for so long there was only one way to go but you could not tell when it would occur. The indicators here have now turned back up with plenty of room to go. The VIX closed above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Didn't close above 20 though but another day like to day will do it. I suppose I'll wait for the reaction to Fridays jobs report and take it from there. We'll see if we get any overseas selling tonight. Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today on Wall street but the Dow managed to continue to climb. The most watched index added 214 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 finished almost unchanged, remaining short term overbought. The NASDAQ fell over 200 points. it wasn't the broad based rally that I was expecting to begin the new year. Not sure what to expect from here but the rest of the week should be interesting. Jobs report due out on Friday. Gold bounced back as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares remain short term overbought and the slight increase today despite a decent gain in gold itself is a negative. I should have sold the GDX January calls that I still hold a long time ago. It may be preventing me from moving on to the next trade with my focus on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today and remains extremely oversold. Not getting any signal one way or the other from here. When in doubt, stay out might apply for the time being. We'll have to wait for a decent signal in the SPY for the next trade there. Still plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The New Year begins with a nice move to the upside as the Dow gained 246 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow closed at a new all time high. Other indices to follow as the week rolls on. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought here and staying that way. That is a recipe for a rally and today probably starts the next leg up. The signal from the McClellan oscillator came through this time around. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Money still needs a home and is finding one with stocks. Gold got clobbered to begin the new year as the futures dropped about thirty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. These are tow of the reasons for the drop in the precious metal today. Gold did manage to hang on to the $1800 level for now. The XAU shed 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX January calls most likely don't have even a chance of getting back to break even. I'll be selling them this week unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround before the end of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely oversold. This too is a condition that supports the rally in stocks. The VIX has been oversold since the beginning of December. Not sure how much longer it can go. Well below the 20 level here and beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Some foreign markets were closed for holiday today so price action around the world was muted. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.