We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 256 points on the same insanely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and just about at the zero line.  The zero line is where things really start to fall apart.  So it's possible that we ain't seen nothing yet.  The market did make a last hour comeback or things would have been a lot worse.  Short covering most likely in my opinion.  We are in the process of retesting the recent low of last week.  Considering that the TRAN and the Russell 2000 have already taken out the previous lows, you can see where things are most likely heading.  The employment report didn't matter as the only focus now is on the next China virus headline.  Could we see a rally next week?  Sure but it probably won't be a sustained one.  Could we collapse next week?  That's a possibility too.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  GE dropped 2/3 and the volume was very heavy.  GE led the bounce last week and perhaps it is leading the decline for the future.  Just a guess there.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar got clobbered again.  Interest rates continue to plummet in the US and look to be headed to zero.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was heavy.  Profit taking or margin calls, you can take your pick for the gold share performance today.  they did come up off of the lows for the session.  My GDX March calls are somehow still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired as the volatility takes its toll on the mind and body.  The VIX shot up to almost 55 today and we haven't seen that since the meltdown of the mortgage crisis.  I'd like to think that the VIX will decline from here and we'll see some kind of stand taken on the S&P before breaking down again.  But I certainly don't know as we have seen some crazy swings in the past week and there is no reason to think that won't simply continue.  We are still short term oversold on the S&P but not dramatically so.  The question is exactly what to do here and I don't have a solid answer.  Going through the zero line on the summation index is a rare event and you really don't want to be long when it happens.  That said, the VIX has already gone ballistic here and it would be a surprise in my mind if it went any higher.  But anything is possible in this market environment.  Europe and Asia sustained heavy losses overnight to close out the week.  Is there any relief coming?  And if so, how long can it last.  Interesting times.  I'll be going over everything on the charts this weekend and try to come up with some idea as what to do next week.  Sitting on the sidelines is an option as well and I may seriously consider that as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The back and forth continues as the Dow fell 969 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and is heading for the zero line.  At this rate we'll see much lower prices coming up soon unless things can somehow hold in here.  The TRAN keeps making new lows and that is not a positive sign.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow but who will notice?  It's a China virus driven market and it is driving downward.  I've still go my open order for the SPY March puts out there but at this rate it isn't going to get filled.  That might be for the best anyway because the option premiums are out of whack and they will be losing value regardless when we get to expiration week.  I still think we'll get a retest of the recent lows, I'm just hoping things stall around until next week.  Hopefully the put premiums will be cheaper then.  But the market doesn't wait around and has a mind of its own as usual.  GE lost around 7/8 on heavy volume and is now testing its recent low.  Gold rallied as the futures were up $35.  The US dollar got clocked as interest rates are now setting all time lows.  The XAU added 2 points, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are now solidly in the black but we all know how quickly that can change.  Two weeks and a day to go in the March option cycle.  Not overbought yet for GDX on a short term basis, so I'll hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was back up again today.  It didn't go to the 50 level again but it has remained elevated.  As long as that persists there won't be any let up in the daily wild swings that we're seeing.  Combine that with the absolute walloping decline in interest rates and you have the recipe for extreme fear.  That's where we're at right now.  I'm not sure when it will let up as the China virus issue is an ongoing unknown.  The Fed dropping interest rates didn't have any effect on the stock market in my view.  So the question is, what else can be done?  The reality is, nothing.  We'll continue to ride things out and try to look for opportunities.  We had a bounce and I can only hope today wasn't the start of the retest of the low.  I'm still saying being nimble here is the best course of action.  Asia was higher overnight with China doing extremely well after the initial fall in the beginning of February.  Europe was lower.  We'll close out this volatile week tomorrow.

The market continues to seesaw back and forth as the Dow climbed 1173 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but the McClellan oscillator is trying to get back to its zero line.  The wide swings are becoming routine now but we know that won't last.  The major stock indices are looking like they are trying to put in a V shaped bottom.  I do still have my open order for some SPY March puts out there.  I'll cancel it if we more through my upside bounce target for the S&P.  It is possible that will happen but I am not in the camp favoring the V bottom.  I do think that we'll get some kind of retest of the recent lows.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was above average.  Gold was off a few bucks after yesterdays huge gain.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are still in the black.  I'm not exactly sure how long to hang on to this trade with all of the recent volatility.  There's still over 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are not yet overbought but they do look like they might want to roll over here.  The trading is never easy.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to move down.  The technical indicators here are mid-range and could go either way from here.  There's plenty of room to support more upside for the stock averages with the VIX.  We are in very volatile times right now though so caution isn't the worst thing in the world.  There's still plenty of uncertainty to go around.  My thinking is that we'll form some kind of short term top hopefully within the next few sessions and then perhaps head back down again next week.  If the McClellan oscillator can't get back up through its zero line, I'll be confident in purchasing some SPY puts for short term trade.  However I do think being nimble is the way to go here with respect to the S&P.  The volatility cuts both ways and the option premiums are out of whack.  Asia was mixed and Europe finished higher overnight.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow higher tonight.

Right back to the downside today as the Dow fell 785 points on the very heavy insane volume that seems to be the norm now.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  We got a one day pop and then a drop.  It isn't positive price action.  The summation index is heading lower and getting near the zero line which is the crash zone.  We have already seen what resembles a crash in the past couple of weeks.  However if the zero line doesn't hold, we'll see even more panic like days.  The Fed cut rates a half a point today and the market dropped.  Perhaps those in the know already knew this yesterday, which may have added to the oversold bounce.  But I've got news for the Fed.  Rate cuts won't cure the virus and after todays price action it appears that they've added to the fear.  I do have an order out there to get some SPY March puts but we'll need to see some more upside for it to get filled.  We've already had a 50% retracement back up from this decline so it may be too late for the puts.  The wild back and forth isn't helping with the option premiums as they remain over priced.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy.  Gold rallied on the rate cut.  The futures climbed $50.  Yes, fifty bucks after dropping $75 in a day last week.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX rose 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The gold shares were up twice as much as where they closed at one point during the session.  But the selling in the overall market most likely made for more margin calls and the gold shares dropped.  My GDX March calls went from red to black.  I probably should have sold them today but the short term technical indicators are not even close to overbought yet.  However with the crazy swings that we're seeing, perhaps being nimble is the way to go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was all over the place today and climbed back up by the close.  Closer to overbought here but that may not mean anything in this crazy atmosphere.  My game plan here is really to get some SPY March puts if we head higher from here.  For the SPY the 50% retracement level of 312 was hit today.  That was a spot to short.  The Fibonacci retracement that I'm looking at comes in at 318.  If we get back to these levels before the end of the week I'll try the puts.  But we may just keep dropping form here.  When good news is met with selling, the market is telling you something.  And it isn't bullish.  There is really so much uncertainty going on in the markets at the moment that stepping aside isn't really a bad idea either.  But you won't make any money that way.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets react to the Fed cut in interest rates here.  They may just follow the US lower, we'll have to wait and see.  Asia was lower with the exception of China.  Europe was higher following yesterdays US rally.  It seems like a week has passed already but it's only been two days.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The market roared back to the upside today, continuing the oversold bounce that began on Friday.  The Dow soared 1293 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's talk of a Fed intervention but the China virus hasn't gone away.  This is the oversold technical bounce that was way overdue.  It could have more room to run but a retest of the recent lows isn't out of the question.  The McClellan oscillator had gotten to the point of extremely oversold and in the -400 area.  There is no where to go from there but up.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it does mean that some upside is inevitable.  Where we go from here and how we finish the week will be important.  GE was up another 1/3 on heavy volume.  It was the canary in the coal mine.  Gold bounced as well with the futures rising $20.  It did finish well off of the highs though.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 3/4, while GDX was up 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  My GDX March calls are still in the red.  We are still short term oversold for GDX so there's room to move higher for the gold shares.  I'm just not sure if it will be enough to save my GDX trade though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned around but remains elevated.  The short term indicators here have turned down.  The VIX also had reached an extreme level where the only option was for it to move lower.  These extremes do not happen often.  As for the stock market extreme that we just witnessed, it rarely is a V shaped turn back up.  There is usually a retest of the low or at least some sideways price action before things get going one way or the other again.  That doesn't mean it can't be V shaped this time around but it does mean that the odds are against it.  More negative China virus headlines and things could be down 1000 points in a hurry as well.  So the trading for the March option cycle will be very tricky.  Add into the mix that the option premiums are sky high and you see the kind of trading environment that we're up against.  It will be even more challenging that usual.  Asia was slightly higher last night but China had a good positive session.  Europe was mixed.  I'd expect to see markets around the globe rally tonight following the US lead.  We'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Another day and another downer for the Dow as it lost 357 points on insane volume once again.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The McClellan oscillator is just about as low as it ever goes, now in the -400 range.  A bounce is coming and it may have begun today.  The NASDAQ actually finished with a fractional gain if you can believe that.  Very oversold for stocks any way you look at it and it has been that way for a few days now.  I may be buying any weakness on Monday morning.  Just a bounce mind you.  There's no new rally in the making with all the China virus uncertainty.  GE was actually up 3/4 on very heavy volume.  That could be the canary in the coal mine for the bulls here.  Or a fake out, we'll know in due time.  But I'm believing the former since this decline has had a panic and now plenty of margin call selling.  Gold got clobbered today, the futures were off over sixty bucks.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU shed 5 2/3, while GDX lost almost 2 points.  Volume was huge here again.  My GDX March calls remain under water but I expect a rally in the beginning of next week so perhaps I can get out at break even or better.  In fact I did try to purchase some more GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price but my order wasn't filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost touched the 50 level today.  That alone tells you that we are in rare territory.  It also strengthens my view that the decline is now due to take a breather.  That doesn't necessarily mean that it's over but it does mean that a snap back rally is about to take place.  Option premiums are very expensive though.  However if we get a chance on Monday morning to purchase some SPY calls, I think that will be the proper short term move.  Of course we have to get through the weekend headlines whatever they may be.  Just be clear on this, extremely oversold, a panic move lower yesterday and today the market didn't completely collapse again.  The volume was off the charts today so somebody was stepping in to break the fall.  That's my view of things going on in the market at the moment.  Plenty and I mean plenty to ponder over the weekend.  Opportunity is out there in my mind.  Europe and Asia got crushed in overnight trading to end the week.  We'll have to see how they do before the US market opens on Monday morning.  Interesting times.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Panic on Wall Street as the Dow dropped 1191 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is cascading lower.  The China virus fear has reached a feverous pitch.  The S&P 500 has reached the 3000 level and breached it.  This is the logical spot to try some SPY March calls.  However there is nothing logical about what we are witnessing today.  I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but canceled it.  We are at oversold extremes right now.  However this week is acting like the week following the opening after 9/11.  So we've probably got further down to go.  I'm sure that the bounce will be incredible as well.  I just don't know from what level it will start.  I still might take a shot at it though.  GE fell over 1/2 and the volume remains extremely heavy there.  Gold was up only a buck again and finished off of its highs for the day.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares got clocked, with the XAU down 7 1/2 and GDX losing 1 3/4.  Volume was extremely heavy here as well.  Everything is being sold regardless of worth at the moment as I'm sure there are plenty of margin calls that must be met.  I did change my open order for the GDX March calls to a lower strike price and it did get filled in todays bloodbath.  Yes it is showing a loss but at least there's three weeks to go here and perhaps the gold shares will snap back as well.  However the daily chart now looks ugly and we're not even oversold on a short term basis yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared to over 39 today so we are in not familiar territory on this indicator.  It will not stay this high for long but who knows in this pandemic fear.  It really is impossible now to try and call the bottom bounce point.  The market has already gone into an irrational place.  What if the China virus doesn't have a big effect on the US?  If that's the case then we'll be seeing some 1000 point up days I can assure you.  But we don't know exactly what's going to happen and the market always fears the unknown.  To me it has already been blown out of downside proportion but that's just my guess on things.  On a technical basis we're way oversold and staying that way, hence the waterfall decline.  I should probably not try and be a hero and just stay on the sidelines until things settle themselves out.  You won't make any money that way.  But you won't lose any either.  I'll continue to think it over tonight.  I'll hang on to the GDX call trade for now.  Europe and Asia were lower last night and I'll assume that they'll get crushed again tonight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The market took a rest today compared with the beginning of this week.  The Dow fell 123 points and the volume continues to be very heavy.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Still no break from the China virus fears as its effects are yet to be fully known.  It is spreading but hasn't really had an impact in the US.  If that does occur then we'll be heading even lower.  The NASDAQ had a slight gain today so maybe there's some near term hope for the bulls.  I'm still waiting for a snap back to try the SPY puts or a run down to 3000 on the S&P 500 to try the SPY calls.  Short term oversold now any way you look at it.  There is plenty of time in the March option cycle since it just began.  GE lost another 1/3 and the volume remains heavy here.  Gold only rose a buck or so today and finished well off of the highs.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  I do still have an open order for the GDX March calls out there.  However the weekly charts for the gold shares and gold would look pretty negative if we were to close where we are today.  Bearish cloud candlestick patterns would be in place.  So I may have to rethink this idea tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is quite overbought and is pointing towards some kind of short term rally here soon.  Either that or we're going to get to 3000 on the S&P sooner rather than later.  I've got an idea of what to do here so I'll simply have to see what the market says and go from there.  Of course we're now at an extreme level of headline risk but that cannot be avoided at the moment.  So we'll watch and wait for now.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market runs on fear and greed.  Fear is certainly in control now as the Dow collapsed another 879 points on even heavier volume than yesterday.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative.  The summation index is roaring lower.  It is a panic attack caused by the China virus.  Seems nobody has a good handle on what is going on with that.  We are now short term oversold but just like being overbought in rallies doesn't mean much neither does being oversold in declines.  My view is that there's solid support for the S&P 500 at the 3000 level.  At this rate we'll be there tomorrow.  I'm still a believer in getting short on a snap back when it occurs.  Might have to wait a while for that but who knows?  GE lost 1/2 and the volume was heavy again.  Gold lost $27 today on the futures and the US dollar was down as well.  Profit taking perhaps?  Margin calls needing to be met?  Well we were way overbought for gold and the gold shares so something had to give.  The XAU fell 4 points and GDX shed over a point.  Volume was pretty heavy once again.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX March calls.  It wasn't filled and I may have to re-evaluate this idea tonight.  Yes, I'd like to do it but no I don't know if it will work.  The volatility in all markets has picked up considerably and that makes the option premiums soar.  Money is to be made but you've really got to nimble and a little lucky.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX made it to 30 today and that is the highest reading since the end of 2018.  We may not be at the point for the decline to end but we are certainly getting there.  The market is in panic mode with the Dow off almost 2000 points in just 2 days.  Who knows, maybe if we get to 3000 on the S&P tomorrow I'll try the SPY March calls.  That is the next idea that I have unless we start to rally tomorrow.  The drop has been incredibly quick and even when the futures rally overnight, by the time the market opens traders are ready to sell.  It is almost like what we saw in the markets after 9/11.  At any rate at some point we'll see a move back to the broken trend line and that will be the chance to try the March puts in my view.  Until then it is perhaps just best to wait it out.  Most of Asia was lower and Europe got crushed again too.  We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines and see what we can do tomorrow.

The game changed today as the Dow crashed 1032 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Fear of the China virus overtook all other factors today.  Why it took so long is just one question.  The longer term up trend line for the S&P 500 at 3250 was broken.  Where we close this week will tell a  lot about where we are going.  A close below 3250 on the S&P 500 would imply that 3000 is the stopping point.  We should go lower from here though because the short term technical indicators haven't gotten oversold yet.  The NASDAQ got killed as well but it is still above the uptrend line that began in December of 2018.  We had huge gaps lower to start the day and it looks like a full fledged decline has begun.  10% lower would take us to 3053 on the S&P.  My next trading idea here is to wait for the snap back that will appear out of nowhere and then try the SPY March puts.  That is what usually happens in these instances.  There will be a huge rally for a day or so and then the decline continues and takes out the previous low.  So I'll wait for that and if it doesn't occur I'll think of something else.  GE lost over 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold continued to shine as the futures gained $16.  It did close far below the high for the session though.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very heavy volume.  Short term overbought now for the gold shares but the break out here is for real in my opinion.  My strategy here is to wait for a pull back as one should materialize when the stock market stabilizes.  At that point I'll try the GDX March calls since I believe that we'll make another run to the highs set today.  Can we just continue higher from here for the gold shares?  Yes, but I do think a pause is the next logical assumption.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX went ballistic today and closed above the 25 level.  We're already short term overbought here.  Yes it could go higher tomorrow but I would expect a reversal at some point this week.  Make no mistake here though, rallies are not going to last as fear is the overriding concern for now.  As more negative news comes out about the China virus it will simply feed on itself.  Although the ideal time to own the SPY puts has come and gone, there will still be opportunities to make money on the downside in my humble opinion.  But you'll have to pay attention and be up for the game.  Europe and Asia were lower to the extreme as well as panic seemed to take a hold of the worldwide stock markets today.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Virus fears prevailed again as the Dow lost 227 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that should be noted.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and this has the feel of more than just a brief decline.  This could be the beginning of a more protracted move lower.  I may be looking at buying some SPY March puts early next week.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Getting short term oversold here.  Gold continues to shine and the futures rose $25.  It has been quite a week for the precious metal.  The US dollar dropped today.  The XAU added 3 1/8 while GDX climbed 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I still may chase this move if we see some weakness early next week because it has been a high volume breakout for sure.  You can also be sure that the decline from this rise will be just as swift when it happens.  Traders pile in and they pile out of this trading vehicle.  In retrospect I should have just jumped on board after my open order on Tuesday wasn't filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX jumped today and made it to the 18 level.  There's still room for the short term indicators to move higher there.  The NASDAQ is now leading the way down and that's bearish.  Since the decline is news driven, it will trade on any reports coming out about the virus be it negative or positive.  So it won't be an easy market to trade.  But as you can see from the activity during this week, there are opportunities to take advantage of.  I'll have to go over things again this weekend and decide what to do next week.  It won't be easy since my confidence isn't where it needs to be.  That said, I could remain on the sidelines if I'm not up to the task.  I'll see what stands out to me over the weekend and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but it isn't a bloodbath just yet.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The day started out quiet but around an hour or so after the open things fell apart.  The Dow was off almost 400 points during the session but closed off 128 on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Hard to figure that.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two sessions and today qualifies for that.  China virus fear was the reason given for the decline but like all the other recent drops, buyers stepped in.  The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought.  GE was down almost a dime on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher as the futures added another $9.  The US dollar continued higher as well.  The gold shares finished little changed on better than average volume.  They are most likely due for a rest.  I did cancel my open order for the GDX March calls.  We're overbought on the gold shares on a short term basis but I may try this idea again next week if we see some near term weakness.  Any good news on the China virus will probably cause gold to tumble.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pretty good spike early on but finished well off of its beat level.  The short term technical indicators here have turned up but it's still oversold.  It did close back above the 200 day moving average though.  Option expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to see how that plays into things.  I will probably remain on the sidelines before the weekend.  It looks like we are in a headline driven environment again for the time being.  The US dollar is finding money flow into it but the usual haven of the Japanese yen is not happening this time around.  Gold and the yen usually move in tandem so I don't know how much longer the gold rally can last.  The stock market is overdue for some type of sustained downside but as long as any selling is met with buyers we won't see any decline that will last.  The trend remains up until proven otherwise.  Asia was generally higher with Europe down in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  

Back to the upside for the Dow as it gained 115 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  As long as the over the counter market is leading the way, the trend will be up.  No matter the news, good or bad, the market continues to go higher.  You cannot fight that.  We are also in a seasonally strong period for stocks until sometime in April.  I guess we'll just have to see how high things go.  Short term overbought and staying that was for stocks.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume picked up to the downside.  Gold added another nine bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  I am leaving in an open order for the GDX March calls but it won't be filled unless we see some decline in the gold shares.  However the train has already left the station with regards to the gold shares here.  Simply another missed opportunity.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and the rally in stocks lives on.  There's no overhead resistance for stocks as I have already pointed out before.  I guess we can just sit back and enjoy the ride.  If and when the market starts to react negatively to some bad news, then we'll know that the tone has changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  Options expiration is on Friday and I don't see any change in the trend over the next couple of days.  I'm looking for something to trade going forward but haven't come up with anything as of yet.  It's probably too late for the GDX March call trade.  March is also usually the weakest month of the year for gold as well.  We'll see how it goes this time around.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A lower start to options expiration week as the Dow fell 165 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to move sideways.  AAPL announced last night that it would miss its 1st quarter results due to the China virus.  This had markets sinking overnight but the US held up rather well considering.  The NASDAQ sold off but ended up with a slight gain by the close today.  The S&P was down but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  the market is showing amazing strength despite the negative news.  I cannot explain it but it is worth paying attention to.  If you got short this morning it appears that you will get squeezed once again.  The major stock indices do remain short term overbought.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  The technical indicators here have rolled over.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained twenty bucks.  The US dollar was up too in a flight to safety.  When I saw gold rising last night, I put in an order for the March GDX calls.  It wasn't filled.  The gold shares rallied as well.  The XAU was up almost four points, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares are breaking out so I have placed another order for the GDX March calls at a higher strike price.  I do think that this is a move worth chasing.  I should have perhaps simply bought the calls today at the market but I didn't.  Maybe my lack of confidence played a role in my actions today.  I do think that the gold shares have just shown us which way the breakout will occur.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a gap up at the open and has plenty of room to go higher.  Whether or not it does is the question.  We are still short term oversold there despite todays drop.  When the market is being hit with bad news form AAPL combined with more China virus fears and it holds up the way it did today tells me that it is most likely going to go higher in the near term.  It may just be options expiration related but it must be taken into consideration.  We'll see how the foreign markets digest todays US market action and go from there.  There still seems to be plenty of money that wants to gravitate to stocks in the US.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.   

A mixed bag before a long weekend as the Dow lost 25 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The market bounced around all day and then moved higher in the half hour or so.  The China virus is still in the news but the market isn't worried.  The technical picture for the S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I don't exactly have a good handle on things here.  My best guess is that we'll just grind higher from here.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold continued higher, the futures rose almost ten bucks.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The gold shares are not keeping up though.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost a cent.  Volume was very light.  It certainly isn't bullish when gold rises and the gold shares don't follow along.  They are still hugging their 50 day moving average.  I'll be patient here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues lower and remains oversold.  It is forecasting higher equity prices going forward.  That along with the usual positive option expiration week bias has me thinking we'll be seeing new all time highs for the major averages again next week.  I'm not sure if it's worth trying some short term SPY calls but it may be.  I'll remain on the sidelines most likely as the loss this week has sapped my confidence for now.  The TRAN and IWM were both lower today but I'm not sure if that means anything or not.  I'll be taking a much needed break for the next 3 days.  Yes, I'll be checking the charts but I will also relax as well.  Europe and Asia were mixed to close out the week.  That seemed to be the theme around the world today.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a back and forth session as the Dow lost 128 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The market was lower early but as has been the case buyers showed up and we rallied most of the day.  Some late selling put us negative on the day.  We are still short term overbought and overdue for some type of decline.  Might have to wait until after expiration for a drop.  Or if recent history prevails, the market will simply grind higher.  Just a week left in the February option cycle.  I'll try not to do anything stupid.  No guarantees.  GE lost 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU added a point, while GDX was up almost 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Waiting to see which way things go here as the XAU Bollinger bands imply.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is getting oversold now.  It can stay that way in up trends.  More noise form the China virus today but the effect was short lived for now.  I now get the feeling that we'll see 3400 on the S&P 500 and 30000 on the Dow in short order.  Sellers are met with buyers before the selling even gets started these days.  I guess I'll be on the sidelines until I can get things figured out again.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow ahead of a long weekend.

Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 274 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now barely moving higher.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow but the gains were spread around.  New all time highs for many of the stock indexes.  I sold the SPY February puts for an 80% loss.  Unacceptable.  I did have a chance to break even when I canceled the stop loss order but I simply held on waiting for a decline that never appeared.  Don't cancel your stop loss orders when you've already placed them.  It's on to the next trade but I think that the sidelines will be the place for me now after this latest trading debacle.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold was little changed as the US dollar was up again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Both the XAU and GDX are trying to hang on to their 50 day moving averages.  I am still looking at the April calls for GDX.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finally broke down through its 200 day moving average which signals higher prices yet to come.  Whatever ideas that I had for a market decline were wrong.  The usually reliable sell signal that I received did not have the magnitude that it has had in the past.  I also was trying the puts after the fact.  The decline, brief as it was, had already taken place.  My stubborn attitude when placing the next couple of trades was not the right move.  It now appears that we'll get the usual run up in the indices leading into the February option expiration.  For me I'll try and fight myself to not take on another trade here and wait for the next signal.  I still think that the contracting Bollinger bands for the XAU mean something but I will try and not guess which way things will go.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but in rallies it can stay that way longer than you think.  With no overhead resistance and new all time highs a daily occurrence, owning calls seems to be the only way to go.  Europe and Asia were higher as the worldwide push into stocks is in full force.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

A day of running in place today as the Dow dropped half a point on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Nothing new on the headline front.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought.  I am still holding on to the SPY February puts and they continue to show a loss.  This trade is running out of time and only a sharp substantial drop will do me any good.  I suppose that I'll wait and see how it goes tomorrow.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell six bucks and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on very light volume.  The Bollinger bands for the XAU have contracted to the point of forecasting a big move coming there soon.  Perhaps the GDX call trade should be put on again.  For now I'm on the sidelines there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to hover around its 200 day moving average.  This condition won't last forever.  The break one way or the other will tell a lot about the markets near term direction.  You can't really argue with the new all time highs that we're setting in some of the major averages though.  With the over the counter market leading the way here, the case for higher prices going forward is not out of the question.  The Fed spoke today and will finish tomorrow.  What was said today had no effect on the market.  The China virus doesn't seem to be a concern and trade tensions have disappeared for now.  As long a breadth remains positive the path of least resistance is higher.  Europe and Asia were up in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

The Dow started off the week with a gain of 174 points on average volume.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we started lower and closed higher.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market was looking at good gains for the day and then shot higher in the final half hour.  My SPY February puts are now big losers.  The stop loss order should not have been canceled.  Unless we get some kind of sharp turnaround lower, this trade will be another mismanaged loser.  We've got the Fed speaking on Wednesday but that will most likely be pretty dovish with the effects of the China virus not completely known as of yet.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices as well.  It appears we've had all of the pause that we're going to get near term.  With only eight days to go in the February option cycle, it's conceivable that things will continue to run up into expiration.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added another five bucks and the US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is right at its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today will send us through.  With plenty of stock indexes hitting new all time highs and now resistance above us it's easy to make the case for higher prices.  I should probably just take the loss I have and move on.  Perhaps I'll wait for the Fed.  Either way it's a rough start to the trading year for me.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Some selling to end the week as the Dow fell 277 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index was trying to turn back up but is now slightly moving lower.  The jobs report was better than expected but the market was down from the open.  We bounced around with a lower bias the rest of the session.  Fear from the China virus is starting to creep back into the market.  I'm still holding my SPY February puts and they are still showing a loss.  They are now back above my stop loss price and that's a plus.  I still see some more downside for Monday but after that it isn't as clear.  We are still short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P, even with todays drop.  The overall market did fare better than the Dow today.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rose almost five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was up yet again.  The XAU was down 2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Dropping gold share prices with a rise in gold isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling just slightly tired, almost done with the flu hopefully.  The VIX closed back above its 200 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here are trying to turn back up.  If that occurs we'll see some more downside next week.  However I must admit that the NASDAQ is really holding up rather well here and we won't get a substantial decline unless the over the counter market begins to falter.  We will also have to see the summation index start to drop again for a decline to gather steam.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 on the daily chart.  I am thinking that we'll head lower on Monday according to my work but anything can happen over the weekend.  The powerful up move that we saw this week after the previous decline cannot be counted out.  So there will be plenty to ponder when going over the charts this weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

Another day, another gain as the Dow rose 89 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative though.  The summation index has stopped going down and is trying to turn up.  Getting short term overbought now for the major averages.  I canceled my stop loss order for the SPY February puts that I own.  That goes against the rules but sometimes you have to know when to break them.  That trade is still showing a loss but I am fairly certain that we'll see some downside in the next couple of sessions.  At least that is what my work it pointing towards although it hasn't been correct lately.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow and that may get things going in either direction.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up $10 on the futures and the US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  I am now looking at the GDX April calls as my next trade with the gold shares.  Perhaps this time I'll take the profits if I have them unlike the last attempt.  Mentally I'm still not 100% with the lingering effects of the flu.  The VIX did manage to barely close below its 200 day moving average today.  The short term technical indicators remain mid-range there.  Just two weeks left in the February option cycle as there is a holiday on the 17th.  We've managed to get back to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  We'll see if it's the beginning of a new leg up or if a rest is now needed.  Europe and Asia climbed overnight as money has moved back into stocks around the globe.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow continued its climb and added 483 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will move the summation index sideways as it tries to turn around.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  My SPY February puts were stopped out for a 33% loss.  I then tried this idea once again at a higher strike price but it appears this was a wrong move as well.  It should get stopped out for another loss tomorrow morning.  The market is simply moving higher regardless of the news.  The small decline that we received last week looks to be done.  Unless there is some kind of negative turnaround overnight, the usually reliable signal that I received for lower prices has failed.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have more room to move up and it appears that they will.  Perhaps my under the weather condition is affecting my brain but there are no excuses.  Stepping aside was an option that I did not take.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up around $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX was unchanged.  Volume was about average.  The gold shares are now in the oversold zone but the US dollar has broken out above its down trend line.  I'm still in the bullish camp for the gold shares linger term.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as I am not up to speed just yet.  The VIX is at the moment of truth as it has closed right at the 200 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators for the VIX are mid-range, so it could go either way.  I must admit though with the powerful move up that we've seen since the beginning of the week, the odds favor a move lower for the VIX with higher equity prices the result.  I will simply have to take my losses and move on.  Most likely to the sidelines until I'm feeling better.  Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade.  It looks like all signs point to higher prices with the China virus not a concern anymore and the US impeachment will be in the rear view mirror.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow soared 407 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is barely moving lower now and trying to turn around.  Could the decline be over?  It very well may be.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today as the leadership is coming from the small stock indexes with the exception of the Russell 2000.  I am not sure why the market has turned around here.  My indicators called for more of a decline.  So we'll have to wait and see.  I did have an overnight order in for the SPY February puts and it got filled in the morning.  It is already showing a loss.  If it gets stopped out I may move to a higher strike price.  Or I may just move to the sidelines.  GE was up 1/3 but the volume was lighter.  Gold sold off today as the futures lost over twenty dollars.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  My GDX February call trade got stopped out for a 50% loss.  The up trend line from December for GDX got broken today.  It is the logical place and time to exit that trade.  This was a winning trade that again turned into a loser.  That isn't the scenario for success.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I'm still under the weather.  I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps my mind isn't up to the task here due to the flu.  Perhaps sitting out for a while is the better course of action.  I am getting better though.  The VIX had a gap lower today but does remain above its 200 day moving average.  The market has gotten very bullish in a hurry here.  I'm not sure what that means.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P still have plenty of room to move higher.  So it could be that the decline of the past week or so is finished.  We'll probably know by the end of the week.  We'll have the state of the union address tonight followed by the impeachment vote tomorrow.  I mention these things only for what effect that they might have on market movement.  Owning the puts now, I can only hope that it is a sell the news event.  However hope is not a viable trading strategy.  Europe and  Asia were both higher as the China virus scare may have run its course.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The Dow rose 143 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were close to 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I caught the flu over the weekend so the blog today will be cut short.  Hopefully I'll recover as the week goes on.  I'd still like to attempt the SPY February puts if we continue higher into Thursday.  GDX is still above its up trend line but another down day will break it.  More tomorrow. 

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 603 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  It looks like yesterday was the chance to buy the SPY February puts but I missed it.  We may or may not get another chance next week to try that trade but it appears that the opportunity may have passed.  The blame will be the China virus but the technical picture for a drop was in place already.  It is a question of how far we go.  With the NASDAQ not in the lead heading lower, I do not think this will be a huge affair.  However normal price targets are definitely lower than where we are and we do still have 3 weeks to go in the February option cycle.  GE lost another 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold didn't really do much to the upside today with a gain of a few bucks.  The US dollar did drop about a half a point today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  It seems that traders are wary of the gold shares despite plenty of reasons to own some here at this time.  My GDX February calls are still showing a profit.  Mentally I am a bit frustrated for missing out on this nice downside move.  I do believe that there's more to come.  The VIX climbed a tick shy of the 20 level today.  Not completely overbought there yet but that should happen on Monday.  As long as the VIX remains above its 200 day moving average, I think that the trend will be down.  Things will get interesting that session for sure since the Chinese markets will finally open after being shut down due to the holiday and the virus.  Speculation is for a 10% drop and that would certainly carry over to the US markets.  If we get a bounce in the middle of the week that may be the chance to try the puts.  However there is nothing to stop the market from simply heading straight down from here and that is a distinct possibility.  Once again I just was not in the right place at the right time although the technical work was pointing to what we are witnessing now.  I'll work on the technical targets for how low we go over the weekend and then decide if trying the puts again is feasible.  It appears that the run up at the close yesterday was the set up for the so called smart money to get short.  Let me also note that the headline in Barrons two weeks ago called for the Dow to hit 30000 on the front page.  That is the proverbial kiss of death for the rally as the headline attempts to suck in the last of the money from the general public.  It happens again and again.  When the headlines shift to the world is coming to an end, you'll know that it's time to buy.  Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend and I sincerely hope that I'll have what it takes to make the right decisions next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 125 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  I'm not sure why we got the turnaround that we did today.  The China virus is still in the news but the market seems to now be ignoring it.  The short term technical indicators have now moved back up.  Could the decline be over?  It's possible.  I canceled my open order for the SPY February puts.  I do still like this idea but the market may have other plans.  I may let tomorrow go by and take it from there.  End of the month on tap and that could move things either way.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was unchanged on the futures but did pull back from the high on the day.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  My GDX February calls are still showing a small profit.  The up trend line for GDX remains intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Todays price reversal was impressive and cannot be ignored.  It appears as though some kind of short term bottom has been put in place.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  The VIX had a nice move lower but is still above its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today and we'll be back below that.  The short term indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  I'm not sure what to think if the S&P 500 closes back above the broken up trend line from October tomorrow.  It certainly has a chance to do so with another positive session.  The trading is never easy.  I suppose we'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

What looked to be a good day for the bulls turned into a bummer as the Dow only gained 11 points after being up over 200.  The advance/declines were just about even on average volume.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The market started its decline after the Fed announcement.  That announcement wasn't any kind of surprise but the buying dried up.  My open order for the SPY February puts wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there.  It's possible that the snap back from the recent sudden decline is over and now we'll head lower from here.  I certainly hope that isn't the case but it could be.  Obviously the market isn't going to wait around to get my order filled.  There's still plenty of time left in the February option cycle.  GE had a blast to the upside after its earnings report.  It rose 1 1/4 on extremely heavy volume.  It has broken above recent resistance and probably has more upside to come.  Gold added almost $10 on the futures as it reversed course.  The US dollar was slightly higher again.  The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  My GDX February calls gained some ground.  GDX is still above its rising trend line with the short term technical indicators about mid-range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced off of its 200 day moving average today.  Volatility is still in the forefront for now.  The VIX is more overbought now and I'd like to see some drift lower in the short term technical indicators.  But like I've said, the market isn't going to wait around and do what benefits my ideas.  We've got the end of the month on Friday and I'd guess we'd see some selling into that.  That wouldn't help my open order to get filled though.  With today price action it's a good bet tomorrow will be lower.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We got a snap back today as the Dow bounced 187 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down though.  We reached the recent extremes on the McClellan oscillator so a bounce was due.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The NASDAQ did not break its up trend line from October so there is a chance that the market will simply rally from here.  However I am not in that camp.  I did place an open order for some SPY February puts and I'm leaving it out there.  We've already snapped back to the broken down trend line in the S&P.  Nothing has changed with regards to the China virus and we have the Fed tomorrow.  I'm hoping for a continuation of todays upside and then perhaps the open order will get filled.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  Gold fell on the stock market rally.  The futures shed over $10.  The US dollar finished barely higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is practically at its short term up trend line.  A close below that will have me exiting this GDX February call trade.  It is somehow still showing a very small profit after two days of decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a start to the week as volatility has returned with a vengeance.  With the NASDAQ acting so well here, is it possible that the recent sharp decline is over?  Was it just a blip on the radar of this bull move higher?  We'll know in due time but I'm still believing that there is more near term downside to come.  Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P have fallen but they're not completely oversold yet.  Yes things could simply go up from here but the other reliable sell signal that was triggered shows a much deeper decline when activated.  I am still a believer in that.  I do not think that we will turn around right here and march on to new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Tomorrow should be interesting and may tell quite a lot.  What was open in Asia was lower, while Europe finished higher.  We've got AAPL earnings after the bell and the Fed tomorrow.  Should be a busy day.

Down we go as the Dow fell 454 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Stock indexes opened with a gap lower and continued to sell off throughout the session.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over and we're not oversold yet.  The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line that began in October.  It looks like we've missed the chance to purchase the SPY February puts but maybe not.  The next technical expectation is a return to the broken up trend line unless we just go straight down from here.  The China virus will be the reason given but we know the market was overextended on several indicators.  Not to mention the sell signal that we got from a pretty reliable indicator that simply took a while to manifest itself.  That is why I'm pretty confident that any upside from here can be shorted.  The trouble is that we may just go straight down.  GE lost 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up about $8 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares lost ground though, with the XAU losing 1 2/3 and GDX down 1/8.  Volume was average.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  It was also a one day reversal for the gold shares to the downside.  That tells me that the decline here in stocks is for real and not just the minor sell offs that we've seen lately.  Traders are selling what they have to meet margin calls.  Now I could be wrong in my assessment so we'll watch and see what occurs in the coming days to be sure.  It certainly isn't a positive when the gold shares decline in the face of gold gains.  But I don't think that it is as negative for the gold shares as it looks.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm a bit annoyed that I just didn't buy some SPY puts on Friday.  Once again I just wasn't quick enough during the trading session to do what was called for.  Hopefully I won't make that mistake if we see some kind of snap back to the trend line rally.  However the option premiums are now all blown out and very overpriced each direction.  So the timing of the SPY February put purchase will have to be pretty good if there is any money to be made.  At this point I can only watch, wait and be ready if the opportunity presents itself.  The VIX blasted up to the 19 level today.  The short term indicators are just about completely overbought already.  Another negative session should do the trick there.  We've got the Fed meeting for the next two days.  Perhaps something positive out of there will provide us with a bump up to buy the puts.  We can only hope at this point.  What markets that were open in Asia and Europe got slammed.  China is now closed for the rest of the week due to the holiday and virus.  I don't expect any quick turnarounds tonight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

They don't usually ring a bell at the top but I believe today they did as the Dow fell 170 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving down.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, especially the S&P 500.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  We now have our cue to get the SPY February puts.  It might already be too late but if we see some upside next week we might get a chance.  The China virus going worldwide is the excuse for the sell off.  But the technical indicators have been calling for some downside for quite a while.  I think that today is just the beginning but I don't expect some kind of total collapse or bear market.  However there should be enough of a decline to profit from the puts if you're up to the task.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains good.  Staying above the 50 day moving average here for now.  Gold found safe haven buyers, the futures rose $8.  The US dollar found haven buyers as well and finished higher for the session again.  The XAU climbed 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2 on average volume.  The technical indicators here still have room to go higher in the short term but this rally seems a bit tepid at best.  My GDX calls are now solidly in the black.  With 4 weeks still to go in the February option cycle, this trade can still go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked higher today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  It made it as high as just shy of 16 today.  The question is whether that's it for now or is this an initiation move to begin an extended decline?  My guess is the latter but of course I could be wrong and often am.  The S&P 500 didn't break its up trend line that has been in place since October.  The NASDAQ is still far from it.  However a couple of the other major stock indices have broken that line to the downside.  Usually the NASDAQ leads the way down and the fact that it isn't now has to be taken into consideration.  So there will be plenty to consider over the weekend when reviewing the charts.  I do however favor a bearish outcome with what's about to happen here.  Europe and what was open in Asia were generally higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a one day reversal back to the upside for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it lost 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  Concerns over the latest pandemic from China drove foreign markets lower and the Dow began the day with a gap to the downside.  We were off over 200 points during the session.  But as has been the case during this seemingly never ending rally, buyers came in and we clawed our way back.  Perhaps this will help to set me up next week to purchase the SPY February puts.  Nothing has changed despite the price fluctuation today.  Still overbought and in need of a correction.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold rose $4 on the futures and the US dollar was up on the session as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX February calls are losing premium but are still showing a profit.  I will hold them as long as the up trend line for GDX stays intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a spike up today but then turned around and closed below the 50 day moving average once again.  My guess is that stocks will rally here into the end of the month.  We'll have a couple more new all time highs for the S&P and probably for the Dow as well.  That will hopefully set things up for the February puts.  However we all know that the market will go where it wants.  We have though been overbought for quite some time.  Some of the sentiment indicators are showing rabid optimism.  Conditions such as these never end in a good way for the bulls.  It is the timing of the decline that is the ongoing dilemma.  I can't say what will trigger things to the downside but we'll know in due time.  Europe and Asia were down again last night on the Chinese virus fears.  Some overseas market will be closed tomorrow for the lunar new year.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed nine points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The Dow was up over 100 at one point during the day.  So the price action was anything but positive.  I am still considering the SPY February puts but would like to wait for the premiums to come down a little.  However the market doesn't wait for anyone.  We're still short term overbought any way you look at it.  No news to speak of to justify the move lower throughout the session.  GE was off over 1/4 and the volume remains average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains in a holding pattern below its 50 day moving average.  It also is oversold on the majority of its technical indicators.  The ideal scenario here would be for the VIX to touch its lower Bollinger band and that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  Today price action for stocks was anything but positive and a decline tomorrow would not be a surprise.  The TRAN has already started to drop and if it's the leader now you know which way we are going to go.  The problem is that we don't know if it's a leader or not.  I am trying to at least let this week go by before attempting the SPY puts.  That's the goal for now.  But the market goes where it wants.  I cannot ignore the sell signal given by a pretty reliable indicator but the timing has been late.  If we don't start to drop by sometime next week that sell signal would be invalid.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe was lower and Asia higher in the overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A lower start to the week as the Dow fell 152 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to grind higher.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action.  We bounced up and down all session.  Perhaps a top is finally trying to be put in.  A virus scare from China didn't help the bullish cause not did the beginning of the impeachment trail.  But it wasn't a complete sell off as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The TRAN took a good beating though.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was only down a buck or two and did finish well above the lows on the day.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was slightly better than average.  I did place an open order overnight for the GDX February calls.  It was somehow filled when the market opened even though the buy price was lower than the low for that contract on the day.  I certainly cannot explain that but it is showing a profit already.  The stop loss order is in and hopefully I'll manage this trade better that the last GDX attempt.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a move up today and we'll see if it follows through tomorrow.  I would like to get some SPY February puts at some point.  This may be the correct time or not as we have remained overbought for an extended period.  The trouble is that the option premiums for SPY are very high due to the extra week in the February option cycle.  I suppose that I will try and let this week go by and take it from there.  It is a short week with the Monday holiday behind us.  However the market is certainly not going to wait for me and if we do start to drop I may just have to jump on board.  Overbought has been the condition for weeks on end and it will not last forever.  Europe and Asia were lower as selling took place globally.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Another day, another gain as the Dow added 50 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and it appears that there's just no end to this rally.  Money simply continues to flow into stocks without any thought of a decline that lasts for more than a day or two at most.  Getting to the parabolic stage and that never ends well.  But to time the end is the ongoing question.  I do believe that the February SPY puts will at some point be the proper play.  I'm not sure when but I will be trying that trade at some point.  There is no overhead resistance though and the market is ignoring any bad news that might arise at this time.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Gold up and the gold shares down.  That isn't a positive but I will try the GDX February calls if GDX gets back to the 28 level which coincides with the recent up trend line for the gold shares.  We're about a half a point away.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overall booked a loss this week and I'm not exactly pleased with that.  The game goes on though.  My trading tactics will be better in the future.  Going forward I've already put some things in place to make that happen.  My main mistake so far this month was really not locking in a solid profit when I had it.  Of course the SPY trade was a disaster but it was while since I'd traded that instrument.  Obviously I forgot how fast that thing moves and how tough it is to trade.  I'll try to remember those things going forward.  The VIX is down around 12 and remaining oversold.  Shorts have been squeezed again and again on the way up.  I guess we can look for a blow off top and consider the SPY puts after that.  The indicators just aren't working in this sustained upside environment.  The sell signal that I received from one of the indicators should take effect by the end of the month.  If that fails, I really don't know what to say.  Hasn't failed yet unless we don't see any downside in the February option cycle.  I am counting on it to work.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend although most are simply overbought and continuing to rally.  Long holiday weekend for US traders, so enjoy the time off.  Europe and Asia were higher as money chases stocks around the world.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

The Dow took off to the upside today and gained 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Tuesday for a big move in the next two sessions and today confirms that.  I dumped my SPY January puts for a huge 95% loss.  Obviously they should have been sold yesterday at the latest.  My mistake there was also not putting in the stop loss order after being filled.  Not to mention that the trade idea was wrong from the beginning.  The negative RSI divergence signal is no longer on the daily chart.  I'm still a believer in the other sell signal that I received from a different indicator.  I'll be trying the SPY February puts at some point in the future.  The expiration week positive bias is strong this time around.  A run higher into the expiration wasn't out of the question and we're seeing that now take place.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm also going to try the GDX February calls again if we get back to the up trend line there.  It is currently at the 28 level.  If it breaks through the up trend line then the trade is off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the big loss on the SPY put trade.  If that idea didn't work right away a loss was inevitable and I would simply try again in the February option cycle.  The question is from what point to start the trade.  There is no overhead resistance and the VIX remains oversold.  The oversold condition can last for a while and that is the case this time around.  I'll just have to keep an eye on things and be ready when the time is right.  Easier said than done.  I'll let Friday go by into the long holiday weekend and take it from there.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was mixed.  It seems that much of the money flow is into the US at this time.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

New all time highs just keep on coming as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but it is sideways in my view.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The US/China trade deal was signed but nobody really cared since it was announced weeks ago.  I'm still holding on to my losing SPY January put trade.  I should have just taken the loss early this morning and been done with it.  It appears that the market will hold on here for expiration week.  After that, who knows.  No overhead resistance for stocks but I'm still looking for a decent decline here soon.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rallied around $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did sell  my GDX January calls in the morning for a small 40% profit.  I could have doubled that if I had held them longer into the session.  However that was a trade that I mismanaged all the way through except for the lucky entry point that I had.  The profits there could have been so much better but I just wasn't up to the task.  I do like the February calls there for the next trade as the weekly up trend line is still intact.  If we get back to that line in the next couple of weeks, I'll try the calls there again.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, up early and lousy trading tactics.  Unfortunately the market did not cooperate with what I needed to happen today.  With only a couple days to go in the January option cycle, I'll need some early selling tomorrow to cut the loss on the SPY trade.  The VIX remains oversold as volatility has taken a vacation.  This condition won't last forever.  Earnings aren't providing much emphasis one way or the other so far.  Looks like I'll simply have to book the SPY loss tomorrow and go from there.  Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines in tonights trading and see how things open tomorrow.

The Dow added another 32 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, the opposite of yesterday.  The US/China trade deal was back in the headlines via tariffs.  The deal is to be signed tomorrow and I'm hoping it's a sell on the news event.  Pretty much everyone knows the deal is done and there shouldn't be any surprises either positive or negative.  But you never know.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place for the S&P 500.  Hasn't meant anything yet.  My SPY January puts are still in the red and I should be getting rid of them tomorrow regardless.  Three days to go in the January option cycle.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold dropped below the important $1550 level but did come up from the lows of the session.  It finished slightly lower.  The US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls somehow made it back to a slight profit.  Should dump these tomorrow as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bit of volatility back in the market today when it was announced that the tariffs on Chinas goods would remain in place for the rest of the year.  That's a trade deal?  Regardless, the VIX did perk up but then fell back to near its low of the day.  I suppose I'll simply have to see how we open tomorrow and go from there.  The timing of the entry to the SPY put trade was off and that's a loss waiting to happen when there is only a week to go in the option cycle.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P but the indicators are starting to roll over.  However with only three days left for the January option cycle, there isn't really time to wait and see what will happen.  It's possible that things will be quiet and we simply wander in to the end of the week.  A holiday weekend is coming up as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the tariff announcement tonight.

The Dow rose 82 points to begin the week on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  I did purchase some SPY January puts and they are already showing a loss.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place but it has not triggered any selling.  Another day like today and the divergence will be gone.  This trade already feels like a loser with only four days to go in the January option cycle.  GE gained 3/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks and is now right at the important level of $1550.  If this doesn't hold the breakout that occurred will be false.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls are now losers.  Not much time left here as well.  A total mismanagement of this trade has turned it into a loser.  Not oversold yet for the gold shares so there could be more to go on the downside here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the losses.  I'll try the SPY puts again for the February option cycle if this current trade fails.  The sell signal from the one indicator that usually works sometimes takes a little time to kick in.  It should be worth at least 25 SPY points when it gets started.  The VIX is now oversold but get remain that way if the rally continues.  With no overhead resistance there is the possibility that it will.  Earnings begin this week and that could turn things around perhaps.  The US/China trade deal gets signed on Wednesday, perhaps that will mark the top as all the good news will be out.  However it would not be a surprise if the positive expiration week positive bias simply remains in effect and we grind our way higher.  In that case the SPY put trade will be dead.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.     

The employment report came in a bit light and the Dow fell 133 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  I placed an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I may try again on Monday if we get some upside then.  The negative RSI divergence on the daily SPY chart is still there.  It's still valid unless we see a substantial rally from here.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions.  I'm not sure todays move qualifies but it could.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold bounced around $7 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was lighter here.  I'm still holding on to my GDX January calls for now.  I should get rid of them early next week unless we get some kind of outside influence in the gold market.  Think another US/Iran military escalation.  The calls are still showing a slight profit so I may escape without a loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost made it down to 12 today.  We are not yet completely oversold there but I'm willing to try the SPY puts next week if there's market strength on Monday.  It may already be too late depending on what happens over the weekend.  In my mind the sell signal is already there and at the least the February option cycle should be good for some more than usual downside.  As usual the timing is the tricky part to get right.  There will be plenty of economic data due out and it is options expiration week.  What will the market focus on is the question that needs to be answered.  Todays negative session did turn the short term technical indicators for the S&P lower.  Plus we are overdue for a decline.  But the market goes where it wants.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy for next week.  Asia was up and Europe slightly down to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

New all time highs abound as the Dow gained 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing in the way of higher prices as the geo-political tensions are over for now.  There's no overhead resistance.  There is still the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500 along with my other indicator that is flashing a sell signal.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I will probably try this again tomorrow after the employment report.  I could be wrong here as we've broken out to the upside from the recent consolidation.  But as long as the negative divergence remains in place, the chance for a decline persists.  I do think that the February option cycle will show lower prices and perhaps I'll just wait for that.  GE was off a few cents but the volume was very light.  Gold continued lower as the futures lost over $5.  The $1550 level has held there for now.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was slightly above average.  My GDX January calls are somehow still showing a slight profit.  I'm most likely going to hold on to them over the weekend at least but I did overstay my welcome on this trade.  This was a time where selling early was the proper strategy.  I obviously didn't do that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now below its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here still have room to move lower before becoming oversold.  So perhaps sitting things out on the January SPY puts may be the best strategy after all.  I may be placing too much emphasis on the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500.  If the index keeps moving higher the divergence will be negated.  There is a chance that's what will happen here.  However if I miss the trade, I won't be pleased with that result either.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia rallies as markets around the globe breath a sigh of relief for now.  We'll see if the jobs report tomorrow has anything new to add to the picture.  End of the week tomorrow. 

US and Iran tensions eased today so the Dow rallied 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up 280 before a drop in the final half hour of trading.  This is a very volatile period for stocks to begin the new year.  Headline risk is at the forefront and positions can change overnight.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY January puts but I certainly didn't have the guts to give it a try.  Perhaps in the next couple of days.  GE was off 1/8 but the volume was light.  Gold had a one day downside reversal after trading above $1600, the futures closed $40 lower and off around $15 for the day.  The US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got crushed as traders exited their long positions.  The XAU lost 4 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  My GDX January calls lost most of their profit today but are still somehow in the black.  As long as gold holds above the breakout of $1550, this trade will have a chance at being profitable.  If that level doesn't hold then the trade will most likely turn into a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX remain mid-range despite the price movement on the S&P today.  So things still could go either way here.  The VIX does remain above its 50 day moving average.  The negative RSI indicator divergence is still in place for the S&P 500.  We've got the jobs report due on Friday but in this current market environment it may not matter unless there's a huge surprise.  Seven days left in the January option cycle.  Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what kind of headlines we get tonight and take it from there.

Back to the downside for the Dow as it lost 119 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now going sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over.  That isn't the case for the NASDAQ, so there's a chance for a positive resolution to the stall that we've seen here.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY January puts if the opportunity presents itself.  But I am running out of time.  Still in headline risk mode.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume remains good here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today and the US dollar was higher as well.  Gold remains overbought to the extreme but hasn't seen any selling due to the current geo-political background.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on the VIX are mid-range at the moment.  So things could go either way there.  My hope is that it moves lower as the S&P trends higher to give me a shot at the SPY January puts.  However the market rarely cooperates with what you hope for.  If we can get a nominal new high in the S&P 500 I think that will be the time to try the puts.  If that doesn't happen we'll just have to wait for the February option cycle.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit and I plan on holding them until sometime next week.  Or if gold somehow keeps going up and hits $1600, I may sell them then.  But we all know things can turn on a dime in this game.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 68 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving higher but not at a steep rate.  Plenty of geo-political international angst over the weekend between the US and the Middle east, specifically Iran.  However the market refuses to sell off on an extended basis here and that cannot be overlooked.  We're still overbought and there is a negative RSI divergence.  I'm trying to figure out if I should try the January SPY Puts at some point in the next two weeks or wait until we move into the February option cycle.  I am convinced the puts will work here with a very reliable sell signal in place on a certain indicator.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was pretty heavy.  Gold broke through the resistance at $1550 but came well off of it best levels on the session.  The futures gained $15 but were up more than twice that.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were mixed on slight moves with average volume.  The lack of upside for the gold shares here is a concern.  That,  combined with the extreme overbought condition of the precious metals themselves leads me to believe that some kind of pullback is imminent.  I am still holding on to my GDX January calls though as selling early has been a mistake that I've made in the past.  So is holding on too long but I'm inclined for now to just stay put with this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had another big reversal day as well.  If it can get back to around the 12 level this week, I'll try the SPY January puts.  I do think that we are going to set a new all time high in the coming days.  The market has had every reason to sell off here and it just keeps coming back.  That is strength my friends but it won't last forever.  The February option premiums are now high due to the recent volatility and the extra week of time on them.  So attempting to purchase them is not what I'd really like to do at this time.  I do think I'll stick with a shorter time frame and try and see if the SPY January puts will work for me.  The headline risk remains in the forefront now.  Any trade will be even riskier than usual.  I'll keep my eyes open for the possibilities going forward.  Along with monitoring the ongoing GDX call trade.  It has been an interesting start to the new year.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there.

An overnight air strike in Iraq by the US dominated todays price action as the Dow fell 234 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending up.  Yesterdays positive market action was negated by the overnight developments.  We are still short term overbought though.  It's now anybody's guess as to what transpires over the weekend.  I still favor the SPY puts but I may have to go out to the February option cycle.  I'll know more after checking things over the weekend.  We now do have the negative divergence on the daily RSI indicator for the S&P.  But we also have already dropped pretty good today but that wasn't something that could have been foreseen.  All players should return on Monday and perhaps I'll have a better feel for things then.  GE was up a few cents in a down market and the volume was pretty good again.  Gold took off on the safe haven play.  The futures rose $20.  The US dollar finished little changed though.  The gold shares didn't participate and that's a bearish sign.  The XAU was down a point and GDX lost over 1/8.  Volume was average and the short term indicators have rolled over.  The gold shares were due for a pause but when the precious metal is up twenty bucks, you would expect some buying there.  Didn't happen as traders cashed in on their recent gains.  I was not one of them as I continue to hold my GDX January calls.  Still profitable but won't stay that way if we see a drop next week.  I'm looking for consolidation before moving higher but there isn't a lot of time for that to occur.  Gold also now is at the resistance level of $1550 and extremely overbought.  The odds of it breaking through here are not favorable in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared again today but did finish off of its best level.  If it can somehow move back towards the 12 level, I may try the SPY puts on a short term basis.  We're back in a headline risk environment as last nights action demonstrates.  It is not the ideal trading atmosphere.  But we'll have to take what we get and go from there.  My hope is that the gold shares trend sideways and then return to rally mode but that is asking a lot in just a couple of weeks.  I do think that the overall stock market is vulnerable here and thought that before the air strike in Iraq.  I'll have to watch the headlines out of the Middle east this weekend and check all the charts as usual.  Asia and Europe were lower to close the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market took off to the upside to begin the new year as the Dow soared 330 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 300 market would indicate.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs again and we now have the chance for the negative RSI divergence to take place.  However with no overhead resistance the market may simply just keep going higher.  My SPY January put idea may be flawed.  I did place a couple orders for the SPY puts today but canceled them as the market moved higher.  I may or may not leave an open order for this idea overnight.  I do expect a decline here soon due to the signal that I received form a reliable indicator but it may not occur until the February option cycle.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P.  GE climbed 3/4 on heavy volume.  That's the highest it's been in over a year.  Gold was up $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were mixed and seem to have stalled here.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still in the black.  However the gold shares have not followed the metal higher here and that's a concern going forward.  We are also plenty short term overbought for both gold and the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is headed back towards 12 and the short term indicators have a bit more room to go lower.  At this point I'm beginning to think that perhaps I should wait on purchasing the SPY puts until the February option cycle.  I'll ponder that tonight.  Everyone should be back at their desks on Monday if they haven't already returned.  Will we get another run up that day and will that be the ideal time to get short?  That's another question that needs to be answered.  For now it appears that the market has nowhere to go but up but we know that won't last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the new year.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.