Friday, February 14, 2020
A mixed bag before a long weekend as the Dow lost 25 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The summation index is basically moving sideways. The market bounced around all day and then moved higher in the half hour or so. The China virus is still in the news but the market isn't worried. The technical picture for the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I don't exactly have a good handle on things here. My best guess is that we'll just grind higher from here. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold continued higher, the futures rose almost ten bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher. The gold shares are not keeping up though. The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost a cent. Volume was very light. It certainly isn't bullish when gold rises and the gold shares don't follow along. They are still hugging their 50 day moving average. I'll be patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and remains oversold. It is forecasting higher equity prices going forward. That along with the usual positive option expiration week bias has me thinking we'll be seeing new all time highs for the major averages again next week. I'm not sure if it's worth trying some short term SPY calls but it may be. I'll remain on the sidelines most likely as the loss this week has sapped my confidence for now. The TRAN and IWM were both lower today but I'm not sure if that means anything or not. I'll be taking a much needed break for the next 3 days. Yes, I'll be checking the charts but I will also relax as well. Europe and Asia were mixed to close out the week. That seemed to be the theme around the world today. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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