Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 274 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow but the gains were spread around. New all time highs for many of the stock indexes. I sold the SPY February puts for an 80% loss. Unacceptable. I did have a chance to break even when I canceled the stop loss order but I simply held on waiting for a decline that never appeared. Don't cancel your stop loss orders when you've already placed them. It's on to the next trade but I think that the sidelines will be the place for me now after this latest trading debacle. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good. Gold was little changed as the US dollar was up again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Both the XAU and GDX are trying to hang on to their 50 day moving averages. I am still looking at the April calls for GDX. mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finally broke down through its 200 day moving average which signals higher prices yet to come. Whatever ideas that I had for a market decline were wrong. The usually reliable sell signal that I received did not have the magnitude that it has had in the past. I also was trying the puts after the fact. The decline, brief as it was, had already taken place. My stubborn attitude when placing the next couple of trades was not the right move. It now appears that we'll get the usual run up in the indices leading into the February option expiration. For me I'll try and fight myself to not take on another trade here and wait for the next signal. I still think that the contracting Bollinger bands for the XAU mean something but I will try and not guess which way things will go. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but in rallies it can stay that way longer than you think. With no overhead resistance and new all time highs a daily occurrence, owning calls seems to be the only way to go. Europe and Asia were higher as the worldwide push into stocks is in full force. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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