Tuesday, February 25, 2020
The market runs on fear and greed. Fear is certainly in control now as the Dow collapsed another 879 points on even heavier volume than yesterday. The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is roaring lower. It is a panic attack caused by the China virus. Seems nobody has a good handle on what is going on with that. We are now short term oversold but just like being overbought in rallies doesn't mean much neither does being oversold in declines. My view is that there's solid support for the S&P 500 at the 3000 level. At this rate we'll be there tomorrow. I'm still a believer in getting short on a snap back when it occurs. Might have to wait a while for that but who knows? GE lost 1/2 and the volume was heavy again. Gold lost $27 today on the futures and the US dollar was down as well. Profit taking perhaps? Margin calls needing to be met? Well we were way overbought for gold and the gold shares so something had to give. The XAU fell 4 points and GDX shed over a point. Volume was pretty heavy once again. I did place an overnight order for the GDX March calls. It wasn't filled and I may have to re-evaluate this idea tonight. Yes, I'd like to do it but no I don't know if it will work. The volatility in all markets has picked up considerably and that makes the option premiums soar. Money is to be made but you've really got to nimble and a little lucky. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX made it to 30 today and that is the highest reading since the end of 2018. We may not be at the point for the decline to end but we are certainly getting there. The market is in panic mode with the Dow off almost 2000 points in just 2 days. Who knows, maybe if we get to 3000 on the S&P tomorrow I'll try the SPY March calls. That is the next idea that I have unless we start to rally tomorrow. The drop has been incredibly quick and even when the futures rally overnight, by the time the market opens traders are ready to sell. It is almost like what we saw in the markets after 9/11. At any rate at some point we'll see a move back to the broken trend line and that will be the chance to try the March puts in my view. Until then it is perhaps just best to wait it out. Most of Asia was lower and Europe got crushed again too. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines and see what we can do tomorrow.
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