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Wednesday, March 04, 2020

The market continues to seesaw back and forth as the Dow climbed 1173 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but the McClellan oscillator is trying to get back to its zero line.  The wide swings are becoming routine now but we know that won't last.  The major stock indices are looking like they are trying to put in a V shaped bottom.  I do still have my open order for some SPY March puts out there.  I'll cancel it if we more through my upside bounce target for the S&P.  It is possible that will happen but I am not in the camp favoring the V bottom.  I do think that we'll get some kind of retest of the recent lows.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was above average.  Gold was off a few bucks after yesterdays huge gain.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are still in the black.  I'm not exactly sure how long to hang on to this trade with all of the recent volatility.  There's still over 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are not yet overbought but they do look like they might want to roll over here.  The trading is never easy.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to move down.  The technical indicators here are mid-range and could go either way from here.  There's plenty of room to support more upside for the stock averages with the VIX.  We are in very volatile times right now though so caution isn't the worst thing in the world.  There's still plenty of uncertainty to go around.  My thinking is that we'll form some kind of short term top hopefully within the next few sessions and then perhaps head back down again next week.  If the McClellan oscillator can't get back up through its zero line, I'll be confident in purchasing some SPY puts for short term trade.  However I do think being nimble is the way to go here with respect to the S&P.  The volatility cuts both ways and the option premiums are out of whack.  Asia was mixed and Europe finished higher overnight.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow higher tonight.

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