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Monday, March 23, 2020

We begin the week like we ended last week, to the downside.  The Dow fell 582 points on the same insane volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Oversold, staying that way and you just have to wonder how long this will go on.  We are getting near the next support level of 2100-2000 on the S&P 500 but we aren't there yet.  That doesn't mean that we'll simply turn around and head back up if we get there.  It means maybe we'll just stop going down and move sideways.  The liquidity problems are not just going to go away.  The Fed today said it will print however much money it takes to get through this.  Even that doesn't seem to matter anymore.  It's a panic without any end in sight for now.  GE lost another 3/8 on good volume.  Gold finally took off to the upside.  The precious metal futures exploded around $70 higher.  The US dollar was just slightly lower.  The gold shares were higher but not by much.  The XAU added 4 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  GDX again sold off pretty good in the final half hour.  We saw this last Thursday as well.  Whatever can get sold to satisfy margin calls, debts etc. is dumped before the close of the day.  When gold rallies a lot like today and the gold shares don't, that's not a good sign for the bulls.  My GDX April calls are still showing a profit but it isn't what it once was and premium is getting sucked out of them as well.  Even though there is plenty of time left here, I'm not so sure how long I want to hold them.  It is also very interesting that gold decided to move higher the day after option expiration.  Those market makers are some group.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as the GDX trade just cannot get going even when gold rallies.  The VIX moved lower today and has plenty of room on the indicators to go lower.  But the market usually goes up on a lower VIX.  Today stocks just sold of less than then they have been and that is not a good sign.  Perhaps if we get the next round of stimulus from Congress sometime this week we'll see a day of gains.  Otherwise it will simply be more selling down into support at 2100-2000 and we'll have to wait and see what happens there.  We'll have to hope it holds because the next support for the S&P comes in 500 points lower.  Might happen.  Asia was lower with the exception of Japan.  Europe was down too.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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