Thursday, March 19, 2020
It was a fairly calm day today relatively speaking as the Dow gained 188 on the still very extreme volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues down. The market is trying to put in some kind of short term bottom here, not sure if it will be successful. The short term technical indicators remain oversold. Nothing has changed regarding the China virus and market around the world remain extremely fragile. Volatility remains the only constant. Not sure what to expect with expiration Friday tomorrow. GE was off 1/8 on heavy volume. Gold still can't find any traction here. The futures dropping $6 as the US dollar simply explodes higher. The dollar is the haven of choice for now with gold being sold to pay for other losses. The gold shares were all over the place. The XAU finished with a gain of 1 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares had very nice gains for some reason until the final half hour. GDX dropped 3 points in that time span. We have seen a lot of late day volatility in GDX for the past couple of weeks. Not sure what that means but the gold shares have held up rather well considering the recent decline in the metal itself. That's usually bullish but in this market it's hard to figure anything out. I'm still holding on to my GDX April calls but will seriously consider dumping them tomorrow despite having four weeks left to go. If gold breaks its near term support I probably should exit the trade. Easier said than done. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX remains elevated and the futures did set a new all time high record this week. Charts are blown out, fear is rampant and the usual things that work aren't. I'll be contemplating moving to the sidelines before the weekend. The SPY option premiums remain out of whack. Today all the puts and calls for March lost money despite the price action. The time and volatility premium just gets sucked out near the end. There is so much premium in the April contracts that it is too expensive for my taste to attempt anything there at the moment. Can't say where all this is going to end but there is support for the S&P at 2000-2100. Not there yet. I guess we'll see how the week finishes and take it from there. Asia sold off, while Europe was generally higher. We'll close out another wild week tomorrow.
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