Tuesday, March 10, 2020
A bounce from the extreme as the Dow rose 1167 points on what is now normal crazy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. Just a bounce for now in the whole scheme of things. But there are some potential positive divergences here for the S&P. A positive RSI divergence is on the daily SPY chart. The stochastic on the daily chart here also looks promising for the bulls. But these are only potentials as we won't know if they're valid until the days move on. But they are signs of hope for the long side. If I was in a better mental state I might even try the SPY calls here. But we are also in a volatility driven market right now and it is extreme. Thousand point up and down days are not the norm. Another headline either way can push things to the extreme once again. The next China virus headline could move us up or down another two thousand points in a day. Going through the zero line on the summation index favors the downside for now though. Staying on the sidelines isn't a bad strategy at the moment either. GE was up 2/3 on good volume. Gold lost $30 on the futures as the US dollar roared back to the upside. However the XAU and GDX had small gains on good volume. This is a classic case of things getting out of control in the market. The gold shares are up simply because they had gotten beaten down so much in the market sell off. Ask yourself, how can the gold shares be higher with gold down thirty bucks? Inefficiencies abound in pricing when we get like this. It doesn't happen often but there is plenty of opportunity out there for those who can take advantage of it. My GDX March calls are solidly in the red and I'll be lucky if I can sell them for break even which I doubt. However in this market environment I suppose anything is possible. I'm still looking to go out to the April GDX calls perhaps. Mentally I'm still down with the loss of my beloved pet but we all know the markets just keep moving regardless of our feelings. There probably are going to be some great money making trades in the next eight days of the March option cycle. Maybe I'll try something in the short term next week if I'm up for it and there's some kind of valid signal. One thing that you've got to watch out for is the rapid erosion of option premium as we get to expiration. The volatility premium will be sucked out of the options as the days go by. And there is a lot of premium in the March options as we speak. At some point that will start to erode and there isn't anything you can do about it. Just a note of caution there. It looks like the S&P is trying to hold on to the important 2800 level and the bull market. We'll see if it is successful. Might or might not be for now but later? Asia was up and Europe down overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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