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Thursday, March 05, 2020

The back and forth continues as the Dow fell 969 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and is heading for the zero line.  At this rate we'll see much lower prices coming up soon unless things can somehow hold in here.  The TRAN keeps making new lows and that is not a positive sign.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow but who will notice?  It's a China virus driven market and it is driving downward.  I've still go my open order for the SPY March puts out there but at this rate it isn't going to get filled.  That might be for the best anyway because the option premiums are out of whack and they will be losing value regardless when we get to expiration week.  I still think we'll get a retest of the recent lows, I'm just hoping things stall around until next week.  Hopefully the put premiums will be cheaper then.  But the market doesn't wait around and has a mind of its own as usual.  GE lost around 7/8 on heavy volume and is now testing its recent low.  Gold rallied as the futures were up $35.  The US dollar got clocked as interest rates are now setting all time lows.  The XAU added 2 points, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume was good.  My GDX March calls are now solidly in the black but we all know how quickly that can change.  Two weeks and a day to go in the March option cycle.  Not overbought yet for GDX on a short term basis, so I'll hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was back up again today.  It didn't go to the 50 level again but it has remained elevated.  As long as that persists there won't be any let up in the daily wild swings that we're seeing.  Combine that with the absolute walloping decline in interest rates and you have the recipe for extreme fear.  That's where we're at right now.  I'm not sure when it will let up as the China virus issue is an ongoing unknown.  The Fed dropping interest rates didn't have any effect on the stock market in my view.  So the question is, what else can be done?  The reality is, nothing.  We'll continue to ride things out and try to look for opportunities.  We had a bounce and I can only hope today wasn't the start of the retest of the low.  I'm still saying being nimble here is the best course of action.  Asia was higher overnight with China doing extremely well after the initial fall in the beginning of February.  Europe was lower.  We'll close out this volatile week tomorrow.

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