Monday, March 30, 2020
The week begins to the upside with the Dow gaining 688 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. It seems the worst has past for now with regards to the market sell off. The S&P 500 is now just about at the near term down trend line that now comes in below the 2700 level. Another day like today and we'll be through it. The SPY April options remain pricey with less than three weeks to go in them. We are also not completely overbought on the short term indicators there. The V shaped recovery remains intact for now. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. Gold was off $16 on the futures as the US dollar was higher to begin the week. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 1/2. The gold shares did come up off of their lows for the session. Volume was good. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls again. It will take more of a drop to get filled. The short term technical indicators here remain overbought so I am not in a hurry for this trade. I'm also looking out to the May GDX calls as well. But I probably need to be patient here. Once the technical indicators roll over and get oversold would be the best spot to try the GDX calls again. The volatility here remains on the increase as well which doesn't help the timing of things. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the market rallied. That is finally what I consider more normal activity. If this continues the VIX should drop to oversold and the market can continue higher in the near term. Of course we don't know what the market will do. If we make it through the near term down trend line, the S&P could move up to the 2800 level which would be a 50% retracement of the decline. That would certainly be an ideal spot to try the SPY puts. But of course we don't know exactly where we are going from here. The pandemic virus is still the main driver of the news cycle. We'll get the jobs report on Friday and that won't have any good news if the weekly jobless claims are any indication. I'd like to try the GDX calls again at some point in the future. Being patient on the technical indicators will be the challenge here. Trying the SPY April puts is the other idea on my radar at the moment. Patience may be needed. Asia was generally lower with Europe higher to begin the week overseas. We'll close out the month of March tomorrow.
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