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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Down and down we go, where it stops nobody knows.  The Dow lost 2353 points on the now normal insanely high volume.  The advance/declines were 39 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to decline.  Oversold and staying that way.  There are no buyers.  The selling just feeds on itself.  Margin calls make selling anything that is worth something the only choice.  All support is gone and the long bull market is over.  The Fed tried to do something again today and the market shrugged.  It seems like worldwide economic activity has been put on hold until the China virus is under some kind of control.  Nobody knows how long that will take.  Long term investors can rejoice because stocks are on sale.  But they will probably get cheaper.  The falling knife is in full force.  Throw out the technicals because fear has taken over.  GE was off a buck and the volume was very heavy.  Gold got pounded and fell $70.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped almost ten points.  GDX lost 2 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I left in an order to buy some GDX April calls overnight and it got filled.  It is showing a loss.  I may put in another order overnight at a different strike price tonight.  Everything is being sold now regardless of its merit.  I firmly believe that.  I also know that at some point between now and the April expiration there will be quite a huge move higher in all assets as the rubber band is already stretched too far in the negative direction.  Gold is being sold here because it is the only thing left for some.  I don't know how far it will continue to drop but I do know that it will come back with a vengeance once the panic and margin selling has ended.  I do not know when that will be but I'd guess that perhaps next week things could start to bounce.  Maybe it takes a little longer but going out to April seems like the strategy for me at this time.  That's why I might buy some more GDX calls tomorrow.  Now this could be completely the wrong thing to do as well but I'm willing to take the risk here.  Mentally I'm still feeling down regardless of the markets and trading.  It will get better.  The VIX closed above 75 today and the positive divergences on the short term technical indicators have been negated.  How often does the VIX get up to 75?  It did during the market meltdown in 2008.  That's it.  That is the kind of unprecedented territory that we find ourselves in.  That is also why I sincerely believe that there is a unique opportunity here for profits if you can take advantage of it.  I certainly don't know how things will play out here but I'm willing to try something in order to profit.  If it's another losing trade than so be it.  It won't be a surprise to see the market down again tomorrow heading into the weekend.  There's no containment for the China virus in the US that anybody can see.  Sitting on the sidelines here is also a completely viable strategy.  But for myself, I'm willing to take some risk.  The worldwide carnage in the markets continued overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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