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Monday, March 16, 2020

Just another crazy day to start the week on Wall Street.  The Dow got pummeled again and lost 2997 points on extremely heavy insane volume.  The panic is in full flight.  The advance/declines were 24 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The Fed cut interest rates to zero over the weekend but the market doesn't care.  Yup, it's a full blown panic and there seems to be no end in sight.  Unprecedented in some respects but it reminds me of the trading following the 9/11 attacks.  The rules change on a daily basis with the China virus but it is certain that economic activity is negatively affected.  Unless you run a grocery store or produce toilet paper.  We are only concerned with the trading though.  Each time it looks like a capitulation low on heavy volume and we bounce, we end up simply going lower in another day or two.  There's no telling where it will all end, we just went through the 200 week moving average today on the S&P.  The next level of support for the S&P comes in at the 2200-2100 level.  At this rate we'll get there tomorrow.  Things are really overdone at this point in my mind.  Long term investors should step up to the plate.  It's hard to trade the SPY options here but I do think that the calls this week will work at some point.  Premiums remain volatile though.  GE lost almost 1 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures but was down fifty dollars more than that during the session.  Volatility rules.  The US dollar fell.  Money came into the gold shares.  The XAU rose almost 5 points, while GDX gained 3 1/2.  Volume was extremely heavy as it was on Friday.  The move in GDX was even more crazy as it gapped down at the open and even went lower than it did on Friday.  The intra-day range was over six points like Friday as well.  But this time it was moving up instead of down.  I did place an open order again overnight for some more GDX April calls at a lower strike price and it was filled.  It is showing a hefty profit.  My other GDX April calls purchased earlier are somehow back in the black.  That is how crazy things have gotten.  It could all change tomorrow though as the markets are in a bizarre state of uncertainty.  Mentally I'm doing the best I can.  The VIX is now above 80 and perhaps trying to set a new record above 90 this week.  Maybe even tomorrow at this rate.  I'd like to say I know where we go from here but I don't.  We are getting oversold bounces from extreme McClellan oscillator readings but nothing holds.  Worldwide central bank action hasn't stemmed the tide of selling.  I think it is a great time for long term investors to put money to work.  Where will we be a year from now?  Probably higher than where we are today.  But my focus is on gold and the gold shares as that is what I'm trading at the moment.  And things are so volatile and crazy that it will be hard to figure out what to do.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have just turned up and there is plenty of room for them to move higher.  But that doesn't mean they will.  However the money flow into GDX today tells me that perhaps others now see what I saw and maybe gold will be the haven of choice now.  Or not.  Everything is in a very fluid situation.  Europe and Asia were crushed overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  It is a worldwide pandemic panic.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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