Wednesday, March 18, 2020
The crazy volatility continues as the Dow fell 1338 on the now usual insane volume. The advance/declines were 15 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. We did have a last hour rally that almost cut the loss in half. But the selling remains in all instruments as liquidity remains an issue for the markets. The declines from the top of last month reached over 30% today. There is no let up in China virus cases and no let up in liquidation of assets either. The technical conditions are still stuck in oversold territory. We've seen some rapid declines before, 1987 comes to mind. But this one combined with the shutdown of everyday life seems a bit extreme. Option premiums remain very overpriced either way. The sidelines seem to be the place to be. GE was off a half and the volume remains very heavy. The daily candlestick chart here shows a potential hammer. Of course it has shown a potential hammer 3 or 4 times during this decline. Gold fell over $40 on the futures as the US dollar climbed and closed over the 100 level for the first time in quite a while. The flight to safety is in dollars for now and not in gold. The gold shares got clobbered. the XAU dropped 11 1/2, while GDX shed over 5 3/4. Volume was very heavy. My two GDX call trades lost over half of their value. Trading here now is not for the faint of heart. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over. I'm still a believer in the trade but with the market acting as crazy as it is, in retrospect I probably should have taken the gains and gotten out. But each days sees wild swings in both directions so all hope here is not lost yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX made it up to 85 today as it tries to break the record set during mortgage meltdown of 2008. We might make it at this rate. The daily charts for a lot of the major stock indices look like that they might have put in a short term bottom today. They have potential hammers on their candlestick charts like the one for GE. The key word is potential, since all the previous potential turnaround signals haven't worked. Interest rates took off to the upside today for US bonds despite the drop in rates from the Fed. Bonds are being sold to cover the margin calls and losses taken elsewhere. Gold and the gold shares are being sold for the same reason to me. There is some kind of liquidity crunch going on and I certainly don't know the reasons for it or when it will end. Throw in a worldwide pandemic with all economies shutting down and you get where we are at the moment. I'm staying with my GDX April call trade for now and if it blows up in my face I wouldn't be surprised. Asia and Europe were down last night. We'll buckle up for another crazy ride tomorrow.
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