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Friday, March 06, 2020

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 256 points on the same insanely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and just about at the zero line.  The zero line is where things really start to fall apart.  So it's possible that we ain't seen nothing yet.  The market did make a last hour comeback or things would have been a lot worse.  Short covering most likely in my opinion.  We are in the process of retesting the recent low of last week.  Considering that the TRAN and the Russell 2000 have already taken out the previous lows, you can see where things are most likely heading.  The employment report didn't matter as the only focus now is on the next China virus headline.  Could we see a rally next week?  Sure but it probably won't be a sustained one.  Could we collapse next week?  That's a possibility too.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  GE dropped 2/3 and the volume was very heavy.  GE led the bounce last week and perhaps it is leading the decline for the future.  Just a guess there.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar got clobbered again.  Interest rates continue to plummet in the US and look to be headed to zero.  The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was heavy.  Profit taking or margin calls, you can take your pick for the gold share performance today.  they did come up off of the lows for the session.  My GDX March calls are somehow still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired as the volatility takes its toll on the mind and body.  The VIX shot up to almost 55 today and we haven't seen that since the meltdown of the mortgage crisis.  I'd like to think that the VIX will decline from here and we'll see some kind of stand taken on the S&P before breaking down again.  But I certainly don't know as we have seen some crazy swings in the past week and there is no reason to think that won't simply continue.  We are still short term oversold on the S&P but not dramatically so.  The question is exactly what to do here and I don't have a solid answer.  Going through the zero line on the summation index is a rare event and you really don't want to be long when it happens.  That said, the VIX has already gone ballistic here and it would be a surprise in my mind if it went any higher.  But anything is possible in this market environment.  Europe and Asia sustained heavy losses overnight to close out the week.  Is there any relief coming?  And if so, how long can it last.  Interesting times.  I'll be going over everything on the charts this weekend and try to come up with some idea as what to do next week.  Sitting on the sidelines is an option as well and I may seriously consider that as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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