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Monday, March 02, 2020

The market roared back to the upside today, continuing the oversold bounce that began on Friday.  The Dow soared 1293 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  There's talk of a Fed intervention but the China virus hasn't gone away.  This is the oversold technical bounce that was way overdue.  It could have more room to run but a retest of the recent lows isn't out of the question.  The McClellan oscillator had gotten to the point of extremely oversold and in the -400 area.  There is no where to go from there but up.  That doesn't mean that the decline is over but it does mean that some upside is inevitable.  Where we go from here and how we finish the week will be important.  GE was up another 1/3 on heavy volume.  It was the canary in the coal mine.  Gold bounced as well with the futures rising $20.  It did finish well off of the highs though.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 3 3/4, while GDX was up 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  My GDX March calls are still in the red.  We are still short term oversold for GDX so there's room to move higher for the gold shares.  I'm just not sure if it will be enough to save my GDX trade though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned around but remains elevated.  The short term indicators here have turned down.  The VIX also had reached an extreme level where the only option was for it to move lower.  These extremes do not happen often.  As for the stock market extreme that we just witnessed, it rarely is a V shaped turn back up.  There is usually a retest of the low or at least some sideways price action before things get going one way or the other again.  That doesn't mean it can't be V shaped this time around but it does mean that the odds are against it.  More negative China virus headlines and things could be down 1000 points in a hurry as well.  So the trading for the March option cycle will be very tricky.  Add into the mix that the option premiums are sky high and you see the kind of trading environment that we're up against.  It will be even more challenging that usual.  Asia was slightly higher last night but China had a good positive session.  Europe was mixed.  I'd expect to see markets around the globe rally tonight following the US lead.  We'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

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