Friday, March 27, 2020
A down day to end a pretty good week for stocks. The Dow fell 915 points on heavy volume but not as heavy as we've seen lately. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back down here for the S&P. A retest of the recent low perhaps in the near future? Or will the V shaped recovery carry on? I'm still looking at the 2700 mark for the down trend line as an area to get some SPY April puts. However if the decline simply continues from here, I won't get the chance. No new news today as the US stimulus package was passed by the house and the president will be signing it ASAP. The market did fall apart in the final half hour. We'll see if the bounce is over on Monday. GE was off 1/2 on good volume. Gold was off around $25 on the futures and the US dollar continued lower as well. The XAU dropped 6 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was good. The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to roll over now. The steep short term up trend line is still intact though. The question is whether we are seeing a consolidation before we move higher or the beginning of some type of decline. I sold my GDX April calls but was a day late. The first batch that I purchased had a gain of 60%. The second batch had a gain of 475%. The gains could have been around twice that had I sold them yesterday at the proper time. But hindsight doesn't work in the heat of the battle. I'm still a believer in the gold shares here and will try this trade again either before the April option expiration or go out to the May contract. Let me stress again the importance of being nimble in the fast trading conditions that we are currently in. Mentally I'm disappointed in the closed out trade today. Even with substantial profits, the feeling isn't a good one. The trade should have been managed better despite the gain. It isn't really about the money, it's about doing the right thing under whatever the market conditions are in real time. The entry on the trade was good for one half and great for the other. The exit was lame all the way around. One thing about the game though is that once it over it really doesn't matter. You've got to keep moving forward. The VIX remains elevated and the technicals are still mid-range. The weekly indicators here remain extremely overbought. That should eventually lead to some decent upside for stocks. The weekly candlestick charts for the major averages show bullish engulfing patterns which is encouraging for the long side. But that could all change next week of course. However with the extreme readings that we just witnessed on many technical indicators, I'd say the odds now favor sideways to up rather than down. I could be wrong. Asia higher and Europe lower to finish the trading week overseas. Plenty to think about over the weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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