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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Another day, another thousand point move as the Dow gained 1048 on the now normal crazy high volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Still trying to put in some kind of short term bottom but that remains to be seen.  The SPY options are still loaded with volatility premium.  3 days to go in the March option cycle.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up.  But they've been trying for over a week without any success.  The China virus hasn't gone away.  I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now with respect to SPY.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold was up over $20 on the futures and came well up from the lows.  The US dollar was up over a point.  Perhaps the dollar and gold are finally being sought as the usual flights to safety.  The XAU added almost ten points, while GDX was up 3.  Volume was heavy.  My GDX April calls are in the black.  The short term technical indicators for GDX still have room to move higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today but remains extremely high.  Volatility will persist for a while.  We have already reached extremes in most of the momentum indicators.  As I said before the rubber band has moved too far in one direction.  That pressure has to get relieved.  It may not mean a robust rally but the downside has to at least take a break at some point.  Sideways would do the trick.  The market won't be turning around on a dime in my view because when the earnings start to come in, they'll be horrible in most cases.  How much of that is already in the market, I don't know.  I do know that the summation index is getting to the point of being the most negative that I've ever seen it but we're not there yet.  But we are getting there pretty fast.  Things for the stock market will probably get better once the real world starts to get back to normal.  That may be a while.  Asia finished higher last night, while Europe was mixed.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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