Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Right back to the downside today as the Dow fell 785 points on the very heavy insane volume that seems to be the norm now. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. We got a one day pop and then a drop. It isn't positive price action. The summation index is heading lower and getting near the zero line which is the crash zone. We have already seen what resembles a crash in the past couple of weeks. However if the zero line doesn't hold, we'll see even more panic like days. The Fed cut rates a half a point today and the market dropped. Perhaps those in the know already knew this yesterday, which may have added to the oversold bounce. But I've got news for the Fed. Rate cuts won't cure the virus and after todays price action it appears that they've added to the fear. I do have an order out there to get some SPY March puts but we'll need to see some more upside for it to get filled. We've already had a 50% retracement back up from this decline so it may be too late for the puts. The wild back and forth isn't helping with the option premiums as they remain over priced. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy. Gold rallied on the rate cut. The futures climbed $50. Yes, fifty bucks after dropping $75 in a day last week. The US dollar was lower. The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX rose 1 1/3. Volume was extremely heavy. The gold shares were up twice as much as where they closed at one point during the session. But the selling in the overall market most likely made for more margin calls and the gold shares dropped. My GDX March calls went from red to black. I probably should have sold them today but the short term technical indicators are not even close to overbought yet. However with the crazy swings that we're seeing, perhaps being nimble is the way to go here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was all over the place today and climbed back up by the close. Closer to overbought here but that may not mean anything in this crazy atmosphere. My game plan here is really to get some SPY March puts if we head higher from here. For the SPY the 50% retracement level of 312 was hit today. That was a spot to short. The Fibonacci retracement that I'm looking at comes in at 318. If we get back to these levels before the end of the week I'll try the puts. But we may just keep dropping form here. When good news is met with selling, the market is telling you something. And it isn't bullish. There is really so much uncertainty going on in the markets at the moment that stepping aside isn't really a bad idea either. But you won't make any money that way. We'll have to see how the foreign markets react to the Fed cut in interest rates here. They may just follow the US lower, we'll have to wait and see. Asia was lower with the exception of China. Europe was higher following yesterdays US rally. It seems like a week has passed already but it's only been two days. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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