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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

A huge bounce today as the Dow gained 2113 points on crazy heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 11 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but it is now at least trying to turn around.  I think that it will be successful as we are almost at the -3000 level for the summation index and that is as low as I have ever seen it get.  That doesn't mean the decline is over.  In fact if the 5 wave pattern on the daily S&P chart comes to fruition, this is the 4th wave up and we still have the 5th wave down to go.  That would coincide with the 2100-2000 support level on the S&P.  Now that's all just conjecture on my part but those are some of the patterns that I'm looking at.  Still waiting on a stimulus package from Washington but that would probably be when the selling begins again after an initial rise.  What good news will be left?  Just a guess on my part.  The technical indicators for the major indices remain oversold even with todays rise.  GE was up 7/8 on heavy volume.  Gold soared again but did finish off of the highs.  The futures there climbed around $90.  That's right, $90 in a day for the precious metal as now everyone is plowing into that trade.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained over 11 1/2, while GDX added 3 1/4.  Volume was heavy.  GDX again sold off in the final half hour as margin calls and the like still need to be taken care of.  So it isn't as though there is an all clear ahead for the gold shares.  My GDX April calls are back to showing a nice profit.  The short term technical indicators have yet to reach the overbought level but I will try and be very careful with this trade.  Things can turn on a dime in this type of environment and I don't like the constant late day selling here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX had a huge drop on the rally today only to come all the way back to finish positive on the session.  That really doesn't figure with a market up over 2000 points.  I do not know what is going on there.  It is either a hammer that leads to more selling volatility or a hanging man which would be bullish.  We'll know as time moves forward.  The pandemic virus isn't going anywhere soon.  So there's still that to deal with.  Jobless claims on Thursday should be huge and that really can't be viewed as a positive going forward.  So today was probably just a relief rally with short covering.  I expect the market to trend lower to sideways because we have yet to even begin to see the dramatic collapse in earnings that's about to take place.  Not to mention all the corporate debt that will be defaulted on in the coming months despite the Fed saying they will purchase some.  So there won't be any quick turnaround for a while in my view.  But that's just a guess as usual.  It's only Tuesday and it seems like we've had a week go by already.  Interesting times.  Europe and Asia were higher with big gains on a bounce as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through there tomorrow.

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