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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 1465 points on insane volume again.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Oversold and staying that way.  The potential positive divergences that I mentioned yesterday remain just that, potential.  At this rate they are not going to be valid.  There's an up trend line from 2016 that comes in at the 265 level for the SPY.  That might hold.  The 200 week moving average is at 255.  Theses would be spots to try the March calls on a short term basis if you had the guts.  I don't think that I do though.  This is somewhat of an unprecedented decline with the speed at which we've dropped.  Now it's not 1987 style 22% in one day but it is fairly rapid.  We are right on the up trend line that began in 2009 at the beginning of the bull market.  Plenty of support at the 200 to 210 level for the SPY.  I certainly hope we're not going all the way back there.  GE was off another 2/3 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was off $25 on the futures and the US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got creamed.  The XAU lost 7 3/4, while GDX shed 2 1/3.  Volume was very heavy.  I dumped my March GDX calls for a 70% loss.  With the extremely fast market conditions I did not keep the stop loss order in place here.  I did have a chance to exit with a profit this week but I did not take advantage of it.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares though as the current market trading conditions are at an extreme.  I may even try to get some of the GDX April calls tomorrow.  However if the stock market continues to simply unwind with all players heading for the exits, the gold shares will continue to suffer.  Gold will continue to decline to meet margin calls and keep players from going out of business.  I'll consider this idea tonight.  Mentally I'm doing the best that I can.  The VIX remains over 50 and the technical indicators are overbought but there is still a little room to be even more overbought here.  It looks like the S&P is trying to put in a bottom here but the battle isn't over.  The Dow did pass the 20% down threshold today on a closing basis so I guess the bull market is officially dead according to that index.  Blame the China virus as the market is moving on any kind of news on that.  There won't be any quick recovery for the economy until there is some kind of handle on the China virus.  That doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon.  Earnings will be affected and not in a positive way.  It may be more of an economic crash per se than an economic slowdown.  But it won't last forever and opportunity for long term investors will be at hand.  We just don't know from what level.  Europe and Asia continues lower as the worldwide rout lives on.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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