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Thursday, March 26, 2020

The Dow continued to rise from the depths of despair and gained 1351 points today on the now usual crazy volume.  The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  I had expected a decline today and it didn't happen.  Perhaps a V shaped low is forming for stocks.  No real news one way or the other today.  The short term indicators for the S&P are now moving higher.  There is a down trend line that comes in at 2700.  We are almost there.  That would be the spot for this short term rally to stall and a spot to try the SPY April puts if you're so inclined.  They remain pretty expensive but might be worth the risk.  I'll consider it tonight.  GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume.  Gold was up $11 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX is stalling at its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  It could start to head lower here but the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought yet.  I still have a solid profit on my GDX April calls.  A rollover here would be a definite cause for concern regarding this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains at an elevated level despite the rise in stocks.  This indicator is now hard for me to figure out.  The short term technical indicators are now mid-range here, so it could go either way.  We've gotten quite a bounce in stocks the past three days with the S&P almost back to its 200 week moving average.  But I don't know what will be the catalyst to keep on going.  The US government has done about all it can do for now.  The pandemic virus isn't going to all of a sudden disappear.  The economic data that will be coming out for March will be dismal.  There is no timetable for the stay at home orders to be lifted.  So I suppose we'll enjoy the rally while it lasts.  So I think that 2700 will be the key short term level to keep an eye on.  Everyone will be watching that because it is so obvious on the chart.  My take on what's going on isn't as solid as it was and that has to be taken into consideration as well.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow. 

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