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Monday, January 13, 2020

The Dow rose 82 points to begin the week on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  I did purchase some SPY January puts and they are already showing a loss.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place but it has not triggered any selling.  Another day like today and the divergence will be gone.  This trade already feels like a loser with only four days to go in the January option cycle.  GE gained 3/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks and is now right at the important level of $1550.  If this doesn't hold the breakout that occurred will be false.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls are now losers.  Not much time left here as well.  A total mismanagement of this trade has turned it into a loser.  Not oversold yet for the gold shares so there could be more to go on the downside here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the losses.  I'll try the SPY puts again for the February option cycle if this current trade fails.  The sell signal from the one indicator that usually works sometimes takes a little time to kick in.  It should be worth at least 25 SPY points when it gets started.  The VIX is now oversold but get remain that way if the rally continues.  With no overhead resistance there is the possibility that it will.  Earnings begin this week and that could turn things around perhaps.  The US/China trade deal gets signed on Wednesday, perhaps that will mark the top as all the good news will be out.  However it would not be a surprise if the positive expiration week positive bias simply remains in effect and we grind our way higher.  In that case the SPY put trade will be dead.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.     

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