Thursday, January 09, 2020
New all time highs abound as the Dow gained 212 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Nothing in the way of higher prices as the geo-political tensions are over for now. There's no overhead resistance. There is still the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500 along with my other indicator that is flashing a sell signal. I did place an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled. I will probably try this again tomorrow after the employment report. I could be wrong here as we've broken out to the upside from the recent consolidation. But as long as the negative divergence remains in place, the chance for a decline persists. I do think that the February option cycle will show lower prices and perhaps I'll just wait for that. GE was off a few cents but the volume was very light. Gold continued lower as the futures lost over $5. The $1550 level has held there for now. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was slightly above average. My GDX January calls are somehow still showing a slight profit. I'm most likely going to hold on to them over the weekend at least but I did overstay my welcome on this trade. This was a time where selling early was the proper strategy. I obviously didn't do that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here still have room to move lower before becoming oversold. So perhaps sitting things out on the January SPY puts may be the best strategy after all. I may be placing too much emphasis on the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500. If the index keeps moving higher the divergence will be negated. There is a chance that's what will happen here. However if I miss the trade, I won't be pleased with that result either. The trading is never easy. Europe and Asia rallies as markets around the globe breath a sigh of relief for now. We'll see if the jobs report tomorrow has anything new to add to the picture. End of the week tomorrow.
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