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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed nine points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The Dow was up over 100 at one point during the day.  So the price action was anything but positive.  I am still considering the SPY February puts but would like to wait for the premiums to come down a little.  However the market doesn't wait for anyone.  We're still short term overbought any way you look at it.  No news to speak of to justify the move lower throughout the session.  GE was off over 1/4 and the volume remains average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains in a holding pattern below its 50 day moving average.  It also is oversold on the majority of its technical indicators.  The ideal scenario here would be for the VIX to touch its lower Bollinger band and that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  Today price action for stocks was anything but positive and a decline tomorrow would not be a surprise.  The TRAN has already started to drop and if it's the leader now you know which way we are going to go.  The problem is that we don't know if it's a leader or not.  I am trying to at least let this week go by before attempting the SPY puts.  That's the goal for now.  But the market goes where it wants.  I cannot ignore the sell signal given by a pretty reliable indicator but the timing has been late.  If we don't start to drop by sometime next week that sell signal would be invalid.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe was lower and Asia higher in the overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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