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Tuesday, January 28, 2020

We got a snap back today as the Dow bounced 187 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down though.  We reached the recent extremes on the McClellan oscillator so a bounce was due.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The NASDAQ did not break its up trend line from October so there is a chance that the market will simply rally from here.  However I am not in that camp.  I did place an open order for some SPY February puts and I'm leaving it out there.  We've already snapped back to the broken down trend line in the S&P.  Nothing has changed with regards to the China virus and we have the Fed tomorrow.  I'm hoping for a continuation of todays upside and then perhaps the open order will get filled.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  Gold fell on the stock market rally.  The futures shed over $10.  The US dollar finished barely higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is practically at its short term up trend line.  A close below that will have me exiting this GDX February call trade.  It is somehow still showing a very small profit after two days of decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a start to the week as volatility has returned with a vengeance.  With the NASDAQ acting so well here, is it possible that the recent sharp decline is over?  Was it just a blip on the radar of this bull move higher?  We'll know in due time but I'm still believing that there is more near term downside to come.  Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P have fallen but they're not completely oversold yet.  Yes things could simply go up from here but the other reliable sell signal that was triggered shows a much deeper decline when activated.  I am still a believer in that.  I do not think that we will turn around right here and march on to new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Tomorrow should be interesting and may tell quite a lot.  What was open in Asia was lower, while Europe finished higher.  We've got AAPL earnings after the bell and the Fed tomorrow.  Should be a busy day.

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