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Thursday, January 30, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 125 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  I'm not sure why we got the turnaround that we did today.  The China virus is still in the news but the market seems to now be ignoring it.  The short term technical indicators have now moved back up.  Could the decline be over?  It's possible.  I canceled my open order for the SPY February puts.  I do still like this idea but the market may have other plans.  I may let tomorrow go by and take it from there.  End of the month on tap and that could move things either way.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was unchanged on the futures but did pull back from the high on the day.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  My GDX February calls are still showing a small profit.  The up trend line for GDX remains intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Todays price reversal was impressive and cannot be ignored.  It appears as though some kind of short term bottom has been put in place.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  The VIX had a nice move lower but is still above its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today and we'll be back below that.  The short term indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  I'm not sure what to think if the S&P 500 closes back above the broken up trend line from October tomorrow.  It certainly has a chance to do so with another positive session.  The trading is never easy.  I suppose we'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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