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Monday, January 06, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 68 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving higher but not at a steep rate.  Plenty of geo-political international angst over the weekend between the US and the Middle east, specifically Iran.  However the market refuses to sell off on an extended basis here and that cannot be overlooked.  We're still overbought and there is a negative RSI divergence.  I'm trying to figure out if I should try the January SPY Puts at some point in the next two weeks or wait until we move into the February option cycle.  I am convinced the puts will work here with a very reliable sell signal in place on a certain indicator.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was pretty heavy.  Gold broke through the resistance at $1550 but came well off of it best levels on the session.  The futures gained $15 but were up more than twice that.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were mixed on slight moves with average volume.  The lack of upside for the gold shares here is a concern.  That,  combined with the extreme overbought condition of the precious metals themselves leads me to believe that some kind of pullback is imminent.  I am still holding on to my GDX January calls though as selling early has been a mistake that I've made in the past.  So is holding on too long but I'm inclined for now to just stay put with this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had another big reversal day as well.  If it can get back to around the 12 level this week, I'll try the SPY January puts.  I do think that we are going to set a new all time high in the coming days.  The market has had every reason to sell off here and it just keeps coming back.  That is strength my friends but it won't last forever.  The February option premiums are now high due to the recent volatility and the extra week of time on them.  So attempting to purchase them is not what I'd really like to do at this time.  I do think I'll stick with a shorter time frame and try and see if the SPY January puts will work for me.  The headline risk remains in the forefront now.  Any trade will be even riskier than usual.  I'll keep my eyes open for the possibilities going forward.  Along with monitoring the ongoing GDX call trade.  It has been an interesting start to the new year.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there.

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